Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for 2021 Belmont Stakes

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1987 and has been featured in The New York Times.

The Las Vegas resident (@WizardPicks) analyzes the eight-horse field in Saturday’s 153rd Belmont Stakes (3:49 p.m., KSNV-3), designating each horse as a contender or a pretender. His contenders claimed the top four spots in the Kentucky Derby and the top three spots in the Preakness Stakes.

For Kipness’ full card selections and wagering strategies for all 13 races at Belmont Park, visit his website at Wizardraceandsports.com.

Post position, horse, jockey, odds:

1. Bourbonic, Carmouche, 15-1

Showed very little in the Kentucky Derby. One-run deep closers like him are at a major disadvantage in the Belmont. Pretender.

2. Essential Quality, Saez, 2-1

Essential Quality’s strong suits are his versatility and will to win. What made him vulnerable in the Kentucky Derby was that he had to work very hard and expend a lot of energy to win the Blue Grass. Watching the head-on view of his races, I didn’t like his wide paddling action of his two front legs. Obviously, this has not deterred him from running well throughout his career. And once again in the Kentucky Derby, Essential Quality ran his eyeballs out and was beaten by just one length.

Essential Quality is the deserving favorite in the Belmont and the most consistent and established runner in the race. My main concern is how effective he will be at 1½ miles. He does get stamina from his sire Tapit and his heart more than compensates for any distance limitations he might have on his dam side.

Contender.

3. Rombauer, Velazquez, 3-1

I had suggested a win bet on Rombauer in the Preakness and he delivered with an emphatic victory at 11-1. His connections never intended to run in the Kentucky Derby, but instead ran in the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland as a springboard for the Preakness. He showed much improved speed and finished third, beaten by 5¾ lengths by Essential Quality, the Derby favorite. Trainer Michael McCarthy has proven to be a master conditioner at pointing horses for a big race and getting the job done. And that’s exactly what happened at Pimlico three weeks ago. It was a career-best effort and proved that he could handle a distance of ground. Rombauer is a danger to repeat in the Belmont. He’s an improving 3-year-old in good hands.

Contender.

4. Hot Rod Charlie, Prat, 7-2

Even though I selected Hot Rod Charlie as my top pick to win the Kentucky Derby and he ran very well to finish third, I am against him in the Belmont. I feel he will be over-bet. I have my doubts how effective he will be going 1½ miles. Contender.

5. France Go de Ina, Santana, Jr., 30-1

I didn’t like him at all in the Preakness, and I certainly do not like his chances going longer in the Belmont.

Pretender.

6. Known Agenda, Ortiz Jr., 6-1

I picked Known Agenda second in the Kentucky Derby because of his improvement coming into the race since blinkers were added and getting a rider change to Irad Ortiz in his prior two starts, which included a win in the Florida Derby. I was disappointed by his ninth-place finish in the Derby, but there are several reasons I’m willing to toss that race out. For some reason, Ortiz found himself in another zip code in the early going. Known Agenda raced in 17th place after the first quarter mile. Trainer Todd Pletcher wisely passed up the Preakness to await the Belmont, where I expect Known Agenda to be much more forwardly placed in the early going. Belmont is his home track. With Irad back aboard and a generous price, I expect a much improved performance.

Contender.

7. Rock Your World, Rosario, 9-2

Entered the Kentucky Derby with three wins in three starts. His first two wins came on the grass. When Rock Your World was switched to the dirt for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby, stretching out to 1⅛ miles, he went wire-to-wire and crushed the field by 4¼ lengths. In the Derby, Rock Your World was done leaving the gate when he was bounced around like a pinball, quickly finding himself in 10th place. He ended up finishing 17th, which is why he will be a generous price in the Belmont.

Rock Your World will be confronted with an entirely different setup and a very favorable one in the Belmont. Since he got very little out of the Derby, he comes into this race a fresh horse. With an alert start, Rock Your World is the pacesetter and the one to catch.

Contender.

8. Overtook, Franco, 20-1

Has only a maiden win to his credit. Reunited today with blinkers and with jockey Manny Franco. Overmatched in this spot.

Pretender.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.