Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for 2021 Kentucky Derby

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1987 and has been featured in The New York Times.

The Las Vegas resident (@WizardPicks) analyzes the 19-horse field in Saturday’s 147th Kentucky Derby, designating each horse as a contender or a pretender.

For Kipness’ full card selections and wagering strategies for all 14 races at Churchill Downs, visit his website at Wizardraceandsports.com.

Post position, horse, jockey, odds (at Circa):

1. Known Agenda, Ortiz Jr., +580

Big improvement in his last two starts with the addition of blinkers and a rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. The last win by a Derby horse breaking from Post 1 was Ferdinand in 1986. There’s no more auxiliary gate, so breaking from Post 1 is not nearly the detriment as it was in previous years. Proved in the Florida Derby that he can take dirt while racing inside and still rally. Trainer Todd Pletcher is looking to win his third Kentucky Derby. Contender.

2. Like the King, Van Dyke, 67-1

Has hit the board in all six starts with three wins. But he has done it over turf and Polytrack. Still unproven on the dirt. Pretender.

3. Brooklyn Strong, Rispoli, 67-1

Concluded his 2-year-old campaign with a game win in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. Finished fifth four months later in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He’ll benefit from that race, but I like him better down the road than in the Kentucky Derby. Pretender.

4. Keepmeinmind, Cohen, 67-1

Showed ability as a 2-year-old but has not progressed in his two starts since returning as a 3-year-old after a layoff. Pretender.

5. Sainthood, Lanerie, 80-1

Coming off a career-best race where he placed second in a Grade 3 stakes over Polytrack at Turfway Park. Has only a maiden win to his credit and is inexperienced. Pretender.

6. O Besos, Pedroza, 32-1

Live long shot who’s coming off a career-best race in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, his second start around two turns. Finished strong, which suggests he should like 1¼ miles. Last two workouts at Churchill have been solid. Contender.

7. Mandaloun, Geroux, 20-1

Beaten favorite in the Louisiana Derby following a troubled start and a wide trip. His prior four starts resulted in three wins and a third place. Has the license to improve in the Derby at a price. Training well at Churchill. Contender.

8. Medina Spirit, Rosario, 15-1

As Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s only Derby entrant, this speedster must be respected. Major excuse in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he raced wide throughout on a track that strongly favored horses racing on the rail. His only chance to win the Derby is to set the pace, which is possible with an alert start. Contender.

9. Hot Rod Charlie, Prat, +835

Proved his narrow defeat at the hands of Derby favorite Essential Quality in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was no fluke when he was beaten by a neck in a Grade 3 stakes Jan 30 after a layoff. He returned to wire the field in the Louisiana Derby, stretching out to 1 3/16 miles. Has very good tactical speed and gets a new rider in Flavian Prat. Trainer Doug O’Neill has two Kentucky Derby wins: I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016. Contender.

10. Midnight Bourbon, Smith, 20-1

Has hit the board in all seven starts with two wins. Has very good tactical speed but 1¼ miles appears to be farther than he wants to travel. Pretender.

11. Dynamic One, Ortiz, 32-1

Ran too good to lose when he was beaten by a head in the Wood Memorial by a 72-1 shot. He’s clearly on the improve for trainer Todd Pletcher. Contender.

12. Helium, Laparoux, 80-1

Undefeated in three starts, including a win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, which was his first start on dirt. But the waters get much deeper in the Derby. Pretender.

13. Hidden Stash, Bejarano, 80-1

He’s been defeated in all three starts in stakes company. Clearly overmatched at too far of a distance. Pretender.

14. Essential Quality, Saez, +295

Undefeated in five starts and will be the over-bet favorite. He’s tenacious and refuses to back down from any fight. I feel he is vulnerable because he has a wide paddling stride that can be easily seen when viewing the head-on shot of his replays. Winning a hard race at the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes four weeks ago could take its toll on him stretching out to 1¼ miles. The verdict is still out on whether he’s moved forward from his 2-year-old form. Contender.

15. Rock Your World, Rosario, +510

Undefeated in three starts, he puts his perfect record on the line following a decisive win in the Santa Anita Derby. In his first start on dirt, he galloped very strong past the wire, suggesting he will handle the 1¼ miles. This is a far more difficult task for the inexperienced dirt horse, especially since it’s unlikely he will get the same easy trip as he did his last time out. Contender.

17. Highly Motivated, Castellano, +985

Talented 3-year-old nearly upset the Derby favorite in the Blue Grass. It was a gut-wrenching performance stretching out to two turns for the first time. I have serious doubts that he can improve on that race stretching out even further. Pretender.

18. Super Stock, Santana Jr., 27-1

Could not have worked out a better trip in winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, facing just five rivals. Draws a tough outside post in a much stronger and deeper field. Pretender.

19. Soup and Sandwich, Gaffalione, 40-1

Ran very well to finish second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Has very good tactical speed but he faces a difficult pace scenario breaking from a tough outside post. Pretender.

20. Bourbonic, Carmouche, 42-1

Upset the Wood Memorial field at 72-1, making the last move when everyone else was spent. I cannot envision him winning again at huge odds breaking from post 20. Pretender.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.