Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for 2021 Preakness Stakes

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1987 and has been featured in The New York Times.

The Las Vegas resident (@WizardPicks) analyzes the 10-horse field in Saturday’s 146th Preakness Stakes (3:47 p.m., KSNV-3), designating each horse as a contender or a pretender. His contenders claimed the top four spots in the Kentucky Derby.

For Kipness’ full card selections and wagering strategies, visit his website at Wizardraceandsports.com.

Post position, horse, jockey, odds:

1. Ram, Santana Jr., 30-1

Improved in his last two starts, scoring decisive wins facing far weaker competition. Pretender.

2. Keepmeinmind, Diodoro, 15-1

One of three in the Preakness who exits the Kentucky Derby. Passed tired horses at Churchill Downs. Strictly a one-run closer who is overmatched. Pretender.

3. Medina Spirit, Velazquez, 9-5

Regardless of the controversy surrounding the discovery of higher amounts of a medication allowed under Kentucky rules following Medina Spirit’s victory in the Kentucky Derby, this colt has the license to repeat in the Preakness. But only if he gets the front end and can relax a bit. I’m a bit concerned running back a small horse like Medina Spirit on just two weeks rest following such a grueling performance. Contender.

4. Crowded Trade, Castellano, 10-1

With only three starts, he’s the most lightly raced 3-year-old in the field and clearly has upside. He’s run well in all three starts. Finished a good third last time out in the Wood Memorial, which has proven to be a weak Derby prep race. He could also have distance limitations. Contender.

5. Midnight Bourbon, Ortiz Jr., 5-1

Midnight Bourbon wants to be on or near the lead from the start. But those tactics were quickly washed away at the Derby, where he was bumped soon after the start and found himself well back of the early leaders. At that point, Mike Smith had no choice but to get him to relax and keep him clear of trouble. That resulted in a wide trip right from the outset.

The key Kentucky Derby prep was the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Midnight Bourbon ran a very good second behind Hot Rod Charlie, who returned to finish third in the Kentucky Derby.

Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the mount for the first time. I trust Ortiz to get Midnight Bourbon to relax and time his move perfectly. I also trust that Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen would not be running in the Preakness unless he knew he had the goods. Asmussen knows exactly what it takes to win this race. He’s done it twice, with Curlin in 2007 and with the great filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Contender.

6. Rombauer, Prat, 12-1

Steady improvement since he switched to dirt following his first two career starts on turf. Rombauer nearly won a Grade 1 stake at Santa Anita in his first dirt outing. Despite a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his performance was far better than it looks on paper. Breaking from post 13, he steadily made up ground from far back after racing wide throughout.

Rombauer was given three months off, returning as a 3-year-old on Polytrack Feb 13 at Golden Gate. He scored a very determined victory, stretching out to 1⅛ miles, to earn a starting spot in the Preakness. The connections never intended to run in the Kentucky Derby. Instead, he ran in the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland, where he finished third, 5¾ lengths behind Derby favorite Essential Quality. Rombauer showed much improved speed that day and has worked beautifully at Santa Anita in preparation for the Preakness.

Trainer Michael McCarthy has proven to be a master conditioner at pointing horses for a big race and getting the job done. Rombauer simply cannot be ignored at a price on Saturday. Contender.

7. France Go de Ina, Rosario, 20-1

Japanese invader who was bred in Kentucky has won two races in four starts overseas. Has never faced this type of competition. Pretender.

8. Unbridled Honor, Saez, 15-1

Trainer Todd Pletcher has run nine horses in the Preakness with zero wins. Make it 10 with this one-run closer who is overmatched. Pretender.

9. Risk Taking, Ortiz, 15-1

Uncoupled stablemate of Crowded Trade also trained by Chad Brown. Threw in a clunker as the favorite in the Wood Memorial. Reeled off impressive wins in his prior two starts. Well suited to Saturday’s distance. Contender.

10. Concert Tour, Smith, 5-2

Following three straight wins to start his career, placed a disappointing third as the 2-5 favorite at the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, washing away his plans to run in the Kentucky Derby. He had every chance to prevail, but not only did he flatten out late, he could not even hold on to second.

Concert Tour is certainly bred to handle the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles. But in the Arkansas Derby, he showed that he could very well have some distance limitations. He also breaks from an outside post with new rider Mike Smith aboard.

He’s proven to be a horse who is difficult to rate. Smith will have to let Concert Tour roll out of post 10. He could become a bit rank, which would not bode well for his chances to carry his speed the Preakness distance. Contender.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.