Oddsmaker’s numbers show Packers right to try late field goal

When the Green Bay Packers lined up to kick a field goal late in the NFC championship game Sunday, the consensus among fans and commentators was immediate: Coach Matt LaFleur blew it.

A field goal would cut the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ lead merely to 31-26 with just over two minutes to play, and quarterback Tom Brady would be able to run out the clock for another trip to the Super Bowl.

Matthew Davidow disagreed. His numbers showed Green Bay’s chances of winning increasing by trying the 26-yard field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 8.

And Davidow is paid to be right more often that not. He is the co-founder of Deck Prism Sports, a sports betting company based in Henderson that is providing live odds for Circa Sports in Colorado, among others.

Davidow tweeted that Green Bay increased its chances of winning the game from 25 percent to 27.5 percent by trying the field goal. “LaFleur nails it,” he said.

That tweet was met with hundreds of comments, with most scoffing at Davidow’s conclusion. He later jokingly retweeted one commenter who said: “If you went through every tweet that has ever been made since the invention of Twitter about decisions made in a football game, this would easily be the worst tweet of all-time.”

A couple of days later, Davidow laughed about the uproar he caused on “gambling Twitter.”

“I didn’t even really get a chance to look at it until later that night, and me and (Deck Prism co-founder Ed Miller) got quite the kick out of it,” he said.

Davidow has a few points to clarify:

— The decision is close. He believes in his model, but he doesn’t disagree strongly if another model shows that the Packers should have gone for it. In fact, he tweeted that the Packers should have gone for it if they were at the 4-yard line instead of the 8.

— He does not just account for the score, time remaining and down and distance. His model knows Aaron Rodgers is the Packers’ quarterback and that Brady is on the other sideline. “Every piece of information at that time is being accounted for. Now obviously anyone can argue that it’s being accounted for poorly,” he said, laughing.

— People overestimate the Packers’ chances of winning even if they scored a touchdown on fourth-and-goal. They would still have to get the 2-point conversion to tie, stop the Buccaneers from scoring in the final two minutes, then win in overtime. After the field goal, a stop and a touchdown win the game in regulation.

For some, the decision is clearly wrong because of the result: The Buccaneers picked up two first downs and are now hosting the Super Bowl. Davidow points out that the Packers were one borderline pass interference penalty away from getting the ball back with a chance to win with about a minute and a half on the clock.

Regardless, Davidow said he wouldn’t focus on LaFleur’s decision as the reason the Packers’ season ended.

“Let’s remember, he was going to lose the game 75 percent of the time no matter what he did,” Davidow said.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.