Offense will boost Anaheim to Cup

The Stanley Cup will stay in Southern California for the second straight season and third time in four years. But the Los Angeles Kings won’t be crowned champions again at the end of the 2014-15 NHL season; that distinction will belong to the Anaheim Ducks.

At least that’s the opinion of handicapper Alex Smith, who likes Anaheim — listed at 10-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup at Westgate Las Vegas — to unseat its instate rival.

“They’re loaded on offense,” Smith said of the Ducks. “They had some goaltending issues last year, but I think they’ve figured it out this year.”

Since squandering a 3-2 series lead over Los Angeles in a seven-game loss in the second round of last season’s NHL playoffs, Anaheim added Ryan Kesler and Dany Heatley to an already potent offense paced by Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.

In net, the Ducks are going with the tandem of John Gibson — who saw playoff action last season as a rookie in relief of Jonas Hiller — and Frederik Anderson.

“Even though they’re a couple of younger guys, they’re more reliable in net than Hiller was last year,” said Smith, who bet on Anaheim to win the Pacific Division (+275) before the season started Wednesday. “Anaheim has some decent talent on defense, and their offensive firepower is going to be too much for most teams in the NHL.”

The Kings return all of their key players, including goalie Jonathan Quick, center Anze Kopitar and captain Dustin Brown; and Smith expects to see an L.A.-Anaheim rematch in the playoffs.

“They’re a little older but that shouldn’t be an issue. They’re gonna be right in the middle of the race,” Smith said of the Kings. “It’s going to be Anaheim against L.A. at some point in the playoffs to get to the conference final.”

Westgate Las Vegas has the Kings at 8-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. The Chicago Blackhawks are the favorites, at 6-1, followed by the Boston Bruins at 7-1. The Pittsburgh Penguins are 8-1; the San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild are 12-1; and the Montreal Canadiens are 15-1.

Smith, who said he is worried about Chicago’s defense, likes the Canadiens over the Bruins in the East.

“Those two will beat each other up to get out of the Eastern Conference,” he said. “They’re both built the same way. They have some really gritty forwards, but not a whole lot of true scoring talent, and they play under their coaches really well and have strong goaltending.

“(Montreal’s) Carey Price and (Boston’s) Tuukka Rask are easily two of the best goalies in the world.”

Smith gives Montreal the edge over Boston because of its youth.

“Some of the Bruins’ key pieces are getting older,” he said. “That’s why Montreal might creep ahead of Boston this season.”

Smith expects the Colorado Avalanche to continue their resurgence under coach Patrick Roy and sees the Tampa Bay Lightning and San Jose Sharks as teams on the decline.

After blowing a 3-0 playoff series lead against the Kings last season, the Sharks — who blanked L.A. 4-0 on Wednesday — stripped the captaincy from Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau.

“They’re trying to shake up a lot of different things in the locker room,” Smith said. “They’re relying on some young guys.”

Smith’s top sleepers this season are the Wild, Dallas Stars and New York Islanders.

“I think the Islanders are going to shock some teams,” he said. “They made some moves bolstering up their defense, and they have one of the best goal scorers in the world in John Tavares.”

Smith’s top play today is the Islanders (-105) over the Carolina Hurricanes.

“I never lay heavy chalk,” he said. “I play underdogs and limit favorites to under (minus) 140.”

Another NHL betting strategy employed by Smith (axsmithsports.com) is to identify teams with weak backup goalies and then find optimal spots in the schedule to bet against them.

This season, the Arizona Coyotes, Edmonton Oilers, Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals are on Smith’s bet-against list.

“Those teams don’t really have a lot of depth behind their No. 1 goaltender, so I circle games where I think a backup will be playing,” he said. “If they’re playing the second night of a back-to-back or their third game in four nights — and they’re all on the road — I’m looking to fade their backup goaltenders.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow him on Twitter: @tdewey33.