Oklahoma should be on upset alert against West Virginia

Since joining the Big 12 Conference in 2012, West Virginia has beaten every team in the league except Oklahoma.

On Saturday, coach Bob Stoops and the Sooners, No. 9 in the College Football Playoff rankings, hit the road to face the Mountaineers in a game that ultimately could decide the conference champion.

The Sooners (8-2, 7-0 Big 12) defeated the Mountaineers (8-1, 5-1) in each of the past four seasons by an average of 10.5 points, with only one of those victories by fewer than nine points.

Averaging 44.2 points and 557.5 total yards, Oklahoma boasts one of the nation’s most prolific offenses. Few teams can tout a 3,200-yard passer (Baker Mayfield), a 1,254-yard receiver (Dede Westbrook) and a two-headed running game (Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine) that has accounted for more than 1,550 yards on the ground with two games remaining.

West Virginia features a bend-but-don’t-break defense that has done a solid job of defending against the league’s spread offenses.

The forecast calls for the possibility of rain turning to snow, with winds approaching 20 mph. It sounds like a perfect recipe for a mild upset, so take 3½ points with the Mountaineers.

Six more plays (home team in CAPS):

CHARLOTTE (+4½) over Middle Tennessee — The Blue Raiders have been ranked among the nation’s top offensive teams in most major statistical categories. But Middle Tennessee has imploded by committing eight turnovers in the two games since quarterback Brent Stockstill sustained a season-ending broken collarbone.

Kansas State (+1½) over BAYLOR — With veteran Baylor quarterback Seth Russell’s college career over because of an ankle injury, the job now belongs to freshman Zach Smith, who figured to be no better than third string coming out of spring ball. Expect veteran Kansas State coach Bill Snyder to force the wide-eyed freshman into some mistakes with a variety of looks and lots of pressure.

VANDERBILT (+10) over Mississippi — True freshman quarterback Shea Patterson gave Mississippi fans a glimpse into the future with his second-half performance last week in a come-from-behind win at Texas A&M. But Vanderbilt is getting better in coach Derek Mason’s third season and is 11-5 against the spread as a home underdog since 2011.

KANSAS (+24) over Texas — The Jayhawks still have a long way to go to reach Big 12 respectability, but they are getting better and have played opponents tough this season at Memorial Stadium. Another loss by the Longhorns could mean the end of coach Charlie Strong’s time in Austin.

Georgia Southern (-3) over GEORGIA STATE — Georgia State, which fired coach Trent Miles this month, has defeated only Texas State and Tennessee-Martin. Georgia Southern lost to Georgia State 34-7 last year as a 21-point favorite and makes amends for that disappointment.

SAN JOSE STATE (+10½) over Air Force — San Jose State has slipped badly and is headed toward the school’s ninth nonwinning season in the past 10 years. The Spartans, however, showed signs of life two weeks ago with 31 points and 495 yards of offense in a two-touchdown loss at Boise State.

Last week: 1-6-1 against the spread

Season: 28-40-1

Paul Stone of VegasSportsAuthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @paulstonesports on Twitter.