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Power ratings vs. point spreads for Week 1 of college football

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In this Jan. 1, 2021, file photo, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is sacked by Clemson defensive lineman Bryan Bresee during the second half of the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)
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By / Las Vegas Review-Journal
September 1, 2021 - 5:20 pm
 

Every point spread starts with a raw power rating, a baseline estimate of the strength of each team.

Oddsmakers then shape the line based on injuries or other factors not accounted for in the power ratings, as well as information gleaned from the wagers of sharp bettors. The computerized models grow stronger as they collect more data from each game.

Here is a comparison of Week 1 college football point spreads to spreads created by two popular power rating services, ESPN’s FPI and Jeff Sagarin.

Notes: Power rating spreads are rounded to the nearest half-point. ESPN FPI does not produce ratings for Football Championship Subdivision teams. Teams are listed with Associated Press poll ranking where applicable.

Thursday

— Temple at Rutgers (-14½), 3:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Rutgers -12½

Sagarin: Rutgers -8½

— The Citadel at No. 22 Coastal Carolina (-35), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Coastal Carolina -33

— Long Island at Florida International (-33), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: FIU -30

— Boise State at Central Florida (-6), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Central Florida -8

Sagarin: Central Florida -1½

— Western Illinois at Ball State (-31), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Ball State -35

— Wagner at Buffalo (-43½), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Buffalo -46

— Weber State at No. 24 Utah (-30½), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Utah -27

— South Florida at North Carolina State (-18), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: N.C. State -17

Sagarin: N.C. State -23

— Appalachian State (-10) vs. East Carolina (at Charlotte, N.C.), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Appalachian State -15

Sagarin: Appalachian State -11

— UC Davis at Tulsa (-23½), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Tulsa -23½

— No. 4 Ohio State (-14) at Minnesota, 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Ohio State -15

Sagarin: Ohio State -17

— Bowling Green at Tennessee (-35), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Tennessee -28½

Sagarin: Tennessee -28½

— UT Martin at Western Kentucky (-22), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Western Kentucky -22½

— Houston Baptist at New Mexico (-24½), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: New Mexico -23½

— Eastern Washington at UNLV (-3), 7 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: UNLV -4

— Southern Utah at No. 25 Arizona State (-45), 7:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Arizona State -41½

Friday

— No. 10 North Carolina (-5) at Virginia Tech, 3 p.m.

ESPN FPI: North Carolina -1½

Sagarin: North Carolina -2

— Duke (-6) at Charlotte, 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Duke -4½

Sagarin: Duke -9

— Old Dominion at Wake Forest (-31), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Wake Forest -29½

Sagarin: Wake Forest -28½

— St. Francis (Pa.) at Eastern Michigan (-30½), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Eastern Michigan -38

— South Dakota at Kansas (no line), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Kansas -15

— Michigan State at Northwestern (-3½), 6 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Northwestern -3½

Sagarin: Northwestern -17

— Northern Colorado at Colorado (-36½), 6 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Colorado -38½

— South Dakota State at Colorado State (no line), 6 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: South Dakota State -1½

Saturday

— Tulane at No. 2 Oklahoma (-32), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Oklahoma -26½

Sagarin: Oklahoma -30

— No. 19 Penn State at No. 12 Wisconsin (-6), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Wisconsin -2½

Sagarin: Wisconsin -5

— Louisiana-Monroe at Kentucky (-31), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Kentucky -27½

Sagarin: Kentucky -33½

— Colgate at Boston College (no line), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Boston College -49½

— Western Michigan at Michigan (-17), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Michigan -15

Sagarin: Michigan -6

— Holy Cross at Connecticut (no line), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Connecticut -1½

— Kansas State (-3) vs. Stanford (at Arlington, Texas), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Stanford -3½

Sagarin: Stanford -1½

— Army at Georgia State (-2), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Georgia State -4½

Sagarin: Georgia State -12

— Fordham at Nebraska (no line), 9 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Nebraska -28

— Fresno State at No. 11 Oregon (-20), 11 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Oregon -15½

Sagarin: Oregon -22

— Rice at Arkansas (-19), 11 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Arkansas -23½

Sagarin: Arkansas -19

— Lafayette at Air Force (-41½), 11 a.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Air Force -42

— No. 1 Alabama (-19) vs. No. 14 Miami (Fla.) (at Atlanta), 12:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Alabama -11

Sagarin: Alabama -23

— Miami (Ohio) at No. 8 Cincinnati (-22), 12:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Cincinnati -19

Sagarin: Cincinnati -16½

— No. 17 Indiana at No. 18 Iowa (-3½), 12:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Iowa -3

Sagarin: Iowa -6

— Marshall (-2) at Navy, 12:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Marshall -6½

Sagarin: Navy PK

— West Virginia (-3) at Maryland, 12:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: West Virginia PK

Sagarin: West Virginia -8

— Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State (-23), 1 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Mississippi State -21½

Sagarin: Mississippi State -16

— Central Michigan at Missouri (-14), 1 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Missouri -9

Sagarin: Missouri -9

— Massachusetts at Pittsburgh (-37½), 1 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Pittsburgh -34

Sagarin: Pittsburgh -38½

— Montana State at Wyoming (no line), 1 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Wyoming -20½

— Nothern Iowa at No. 7 Iowa State (no line), 1:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Iowa State -34½

— No. 23 Louisiana (Lafayette) at No. 21 Texas (-8), 1:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Texas -16

Sagarin: Texas -16

— San Jose State at No. 15 Southern California (-14), 2 p.m.

ESPN FPI: USC -19

Sagarin: USC -21

— Campbell at Liberty (no line), 3 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Liberty -25½

— Gardner-Webb at Georgia Southern (no line), 3 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Georgia Southern -33

— Akron at Auburn (-36½), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Auburn -37

Sagarin: Auburn -32

— Eastern Illinois at South Carolina (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: South Carolina -35

— Monmouth at Middle Tennessee (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Middle Tennessee -5

— Syracuse at Ohio (PK), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Ohio PK

Sagarin: Ohio -13½

— Oregon State at Purdue (-6½), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Purdue -8

Sagarin: Oregon State PK

— Texas Tech (PK) at Houston (at Texans’ stadium), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Texas Tech -2½

Sagarin: Texas Tech -2

— Missouri State at Oklahoma State (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Oklahoma State -36½

— Baylor (-14) at Texas State, 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Baylor -10½

Sagarin: Baylor -25

— Nicholls State at Memphis (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Memphis -26

— Abilene Christian at SMU (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: SMU -32

— Norfolk State at Toledo (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Toledo -42

— Central Arkansas at Arkansas State (no line), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Arkansas State -14

— Southern at Troy (-25½), 4 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Troy -28½

— No. 3 Clemson (-3) vs. No. 5 Georgia (at Charlotte, N.C.), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Clemson -6½

Sagarin: Clemson -1½

— Florida Atlantic at No. 13 Florida (-23), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Florida -23

Sagarin: Florida -24½

— Northwestern State at North Texas (no line), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: North Texas -16½

— UTSA at Illinois (-5), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Illinois -6

Sagarin: Illinois -11

— Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech (-18½), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Georgia Tech -13½

Sagarin: Georgia Tech -2

— William & Mary at Virginia (no line), 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Virginia -37½

— Kent State at No. 6 Texas A&M (-28½), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Texas A&M -28½

Sagarin: Texas A&M -22

— Montana at No. 20 Washington (no line), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Washington -28

— East Tennessee State at Vanderbilt (no line), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Vanderbilt -19½

— Southern Mississippi at South Alabama (-1), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Southern Miss -1

Sagarin: Southern Miss -1½

— Duquesne at TCU (no line), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: TCU -49½

— No. 16 LSU (-3) at UCLA, 5:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: LSU PK

Sagarin: LSU -10

— Bethune-Cookman at UTEP (no line), 6 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: UTEP -28

— UNR at California (-3½), 7:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: California -7

Sagarin: California -8½

— Arizona vs. BYU (-12½) (at Allegiant Stadium), 7:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: BYU -12

Sagarin: Arizona -3½

— New Mexico State at San Diego State (-31), 7:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: San Diego State -32

Sagarin: San Diego State -36½

— Utah State at Washington State (-17), 8 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Washington State -13

Sagarin: Washington State -17

— Portland State at Hawaii (no line), 9 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Not available

Sagarin: Hawaii -15½

Sunday

— No. 9 Notre Dame (-7) at Florida State, 4:30 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Notre Dame -8

Sagarin: Notre Dame -4

Monday

— Louisville vs. Mississippi (-10½) (at Atlanta), 5 p.m.

ESPN FPI: Ole Miss -7

Sagarin: Ole Miss -11

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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