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Raiders-Broncos line move not because of Jon Gruden’s departure

Updated October 12, 2021 - 3:29 pm

After Jon Gruden resigned as Raiders coach Monday night, the line on Sunday’s game at Denver moved from Broncos -3 to -3½ and has since climbed to -4 at the Westgate SuperBook.

But SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay and other Las Vegas oddsmakers said Gruden’s sudden departure didn’t impact the line. The Raiders’ poor performance in Sunday’s 20-9 home loss to the Chicago Bears did.

“It’s very rare that we would move numbers based off a coaching change,” Kornegay said. “In this case, it holds true. We haven’t adjusted any numbers based off of Gruden’s announcement.

“Most of that movement was based off their performance against the Bears. But there has been a little bit of money on the Broncos coming in.”

Circa Sports and the South Point reported taking bets on the Broncos -3 as the Gruden news was breaking before moving the spread to 3½.

“I think people will bet against the Raiders now,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “They have just not played well the last few games. I think they have issues besides Gruden.

“They looked very lethargic on Sunday, too. I don’t know if the Gruden news had anything to do with it or they ran into a great defense.”

Caesars also moved the spread from 3 to 3½, while Station Casinos and BetMGM stayed put at 3½.

“We have not budged the game or the futures based on his departure,” MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback said.

In fact, none of the books moved the Raiders’ futures odds after Gruden resigned.

The Raiders (3-2) are +180 at Caesars to make the playoffs, +1,250 at the SuperBook to win the AFC West, 55-1 at Circa to win the AFC and 125-1 at Circa to win the Super Bowl.

Kornegay said a college football coach missing a significant amount of time would have more of an impact on the line than an NFL coach such as New England’s Bill Belichick.

“If Belichick missed a day, it would be no big deal, but if he missed a week of practice, I would think it would be a half point,” he said. “Some would argue it would have no impact on the line.

“It’s tough to predict. There have been coaching changes in the past where a team has performed poorly after these announcements, but we’ve also seen them rally and take on an us-against-the-world mentality and start playing better.”

Kornegay said he can’t see the line — which opened at -2½ on Oct. 5 — go much higher.

“The Broncos are really having a difficult time scoring points,” he said. “I don’t think the sharps are going to allow it to get too much higher.”

The Raiders named assistant head coach and special teams coach Rich Bisaccia as their interim head coach. SportsBetting.ag, an offshore sportsbook that operates illegally in the United States, has set odds on who will be the Raiders’ next head coach.

NFL offensive coordinators claim the top four spots, with Kansas City’s Eric Bieniemy the 6-1 favorite, followed by Buffalo’s Brian Daboll at +650 and Carolina’s Joe Brady and Dallas’ Kellen Moore at +750.

At 9-1 are Iowa State coach Matt Campbell and Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.

At 10-1 are Bisaccia, Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and Stanford coach David Shaw.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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