Sharps back Celtics, Nuggets, fade Jazz in NBA season win totals

After a slow start last season, the Boston Celtics went 28-7 down the stretch to finish 51-31 before making a run to the NBA Finals.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors expect big things out of the Celtics again next season, which starts in less than two months.

Boston has the highest regular-season win total at multiple sportsbooks, including Caesars, where it leads the way with 55½ wins.

“We’ve had higher win totals in the past, but it’s a totally different ballgame now,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Load management is a big deal now, more than it’s ever been. I just don’t think there’s that same push anymore for top teams to go all out in the regular season.

“The Suns won 64 last year, which was quite impressive, but it’s tough to put up a win total in that range. A team like the Celtics, they’re probably going to make sure they’re healthy for the playoffs late in the season compared to chasing 60 wins or so.”

The Celtics are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the highest win total at Circa Sports, where they’re at 54½ and Boston is the 5-1 favorite to win the title.

“The way they finished the year and made the finals run, the Celtics definitely have to be No. 1 in the East,” Circa risk manager Dylan Sullivan said. “There was a little influence off the way they’re betting them to win the title and conference. We’ve definitely seen some sharp money on the Celtics to solidify them as the top team in the East. They love the Celtics.”

The Denver Nuggets and defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors are tied for the third-highest win total at Circa at 52. The Nuggets, led by two-time defending league MVP Nikola Jokic, have been the most popular over bet at Caesars, where they moved up to 50½ after a Nevada bettor wagered $3,300 on Denver to go over 49½.

“Jamal Murray is supposed to be back this year, and Michael Porter Jr. missed a lot of last year,” Sullivan said. “As a team, they’re kind of coming together. We’ve also seen some pretty sharp action on them to win the championship.”

There are four other teams with totals in the 50s at Circa: the Milwaukee Bucks (51½), Philadelphia 76ers (51½), Memphis Grizzlies (51) and Los Angeles Clippers (50½).

Kings climb

The biggest mover at Caesars has been the Sacramento Kings, who are at 35½ wins after opening at 32½.

“The Kings are kind of a trendy team to make a push in the back end of the playoffs,” Sullivan said. “They’re a young team and have a little bit of promise.”

Fading Jazz

Utah has drawn the most under money at Caesars, which took wagers of $3,450 and $3,300 on the Jazz under 32½ wins.

“It’s not surprising that the Jazz have gotten all this under money,” Pullen said. “Everything points that they’ll be trading (Donovan) Mitchell.

“We’ll see what they can get back in a trade, but it’s hard to replace what he can do.”

Utah is down to 31½ at Caesars and is 33 at Circa, where the Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets are tied for the lowest win total at 22½.

“If the Jazz trade away Mitchell, they’ll probably be lower than all of them,” Sullivan said.

Circa seminar

Circa will host a free “Circa Football Preview” sports betting panel from 4 to 6 p.m. Saturday in the ballroom space located on the third floor.

The panel will be hosted by Circa vice president of operations Mike Palm and feature former NFL players Brian Urlacher and Shaun King, Covers sports betting analyst Adam Chernoff and Circa director of risk Chris Bennett.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.