Sportsbooks expect UNLV to struggle in Marcus Arroyo’s first year

UNLV’s long-suffering football fans have two big reasons for optimism this season with a new coach in former Oregon offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo and a new home in $2 billion Allegiant Stadium.

Then there’s the schedule. There are no pushovers for the Rebels on a brutal slate that features a school record-tying nine teams that went to a bowl last season.

“I don’t know who’s making these schedules for UNLV, but if you wanted to punish the team and take away any self-confidence, you’d give them the schedule they have this year,” Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.

Fewer than 90 days remain until the Rebels’ Aug. 29 season opener against California at Allegiant Stadium. UNLV then will host Louisiana Tech and Arizona State before closing its nonconference schedule at Iowa State.

“The first word that jumps to my mind is ‘challenging,’” Arroyo said when the schedule was announced. “Our preconference season is the most demanding in the Mountain West. In each game, we play teams coming off big years and returning key starters.

“We play Cal and ASU within two weeks of each other, and it will be a huge ask for our young team.”

The Rebels, who went 4-8 last season and have produced one winning record in the past 19 years, open their conference schedule at San Diego State and also have road games against league favorite Boise State and Hawaii.

“It’s hard to look through that schedule and see too many wins,” Salmons said. “They’re just playing too many teams they shouldn’t be playing. They’re not ready for it yet.”

Only five teams have a lower season win total than the Rebels at Caesars Entertainment. They are in the bottom 11 of 130 FBS schools with a win total of 3 (Over -125) after the number opened at 3½ (Under -185).

UNLV is a 200-1 long shot at the Westgate to win the Mountain West title game.

The Rebels were 2-8 last season before rallying for wins over San Jose State and UNR in coach Tony Sanchez’s final two games. He finished 20-40 in five seasons and was instrumental in getting the new Fertitta Football Complex built on campus.

Salmons said he likes the Arroyo hire and expects him to eventually take the program to another level.

“Getting to play at Allegiant Stadium and their new training facility are huge selling points,” Salmons said. “I see UNLV in the future recruiting much better athletes that will put the football program in a more positive light from where it’s been buried for years at Sam Boyd Stadium.

“When (Arroyo) recruits his own players and they have a normal schedule, they can be a bowl team. Not this year, because the schedule is going to do them in. But maybe next year and definitely by the third year.”

MajorWager managing editor Brian Edwards agrees, noting that Arroyo “got off to a nice start by bringing in the Mountain West’s second-best recruiting class.

“The bad news is that the benefits of that class probably won’t pay dividends until 2021 and 2022.”

The Rebels return starting quarterback Kenyon Oblad, who threw at least two touchdown passes in seven of his eight starts as a freshman, and leading rusher Charles Williams (1,257 yards, 11 TDs). Senior QB Armani Rogers also returns, and Texas Christian transfer QB Justin Rogers might gain eligibility.

UNLV’s defense, which returns only four starters, figures to struggle again after allowing 33 points per game last season.

Edwards likes Boise State to win the Mountain West title game (Even) and eclipse its win total of 9½ (Over -115). He’s passing on UNLV’s win total.

“Without spring practice to install new schemes from Arroyo and his staff, the Rebels face massive challenges in August,” said Edwards (@vegasbedwards). “Then the regular season starts with three Power Five opponents and one of the best programs in Conference USA, Louisiana Tech.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.