Sportsbooks on hook for millions if underdogs win in CFP semifinals

The betting public normally plays favorites. But they have flipped the script for the College Football Playoff semifinals and are backing both underdogs in the New Year’s Day bowl games.

If they’re right, and Alabama and Washington advance to the CFP national title game, sportsbooks would be on the hook for millions of dollars in payouts on long-shot futures bets.

The Crimson Tide, consensus 2-point underdogs to Michigan in the Rose Bowl, soared as high as 60-1 at the Westgate SuperBook to win the title after losing their season opener to Texas and struggling in a Week 2 win over South Florida.

The Huskies, consensus 4-point underdogs to Texas in the Sugar Bowl, opened at 100-1 at the SuperBook in January 2023 and were still at 18-1 at Caesars Sportsbook before they upset Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game at Allegiant Stadium.

Alabama got as high as 40-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, which will pay out more than $1 million alone if the Tide win their seventh national title in 15 years.

“People are going to bet Alabama and (coach Nick) Saban every year,” Caesars lead college football trader Joey Feazel said. “Alabama, after that first loss, had relatively higher odds all year, and they were expected to lose to Georgia as well (in the Southeastern Conference title game).

“A lot of bettors got some bigger prices along the way, and they continue to bet Alabama even today at (+215).”

Michigan is the +210 CFP title favorite at Caesars, followed by Alabama, Texas (+235) and Washington (+650). The Longhorns were +270 before Houston furniture store owner Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale placed a $1 million wager to win $2.7 million at the book on Texas.

Washington is another huge liability at Caesars and the biggest at the SuperBook, which is on the hook for six figures if the Huskies extend their winning streak to 22 games and claim the Pac-12’s first national championship since the 2004 season (Southern California).

“Washington is the only team we have decent liability on. We’re definitely rooting against them winning it all,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Before they had played anything, there were people backing them. The biggest amount of money we had on Washington was after they were in the playoffs at 7-1.”

Feazel said 75 percent of the money wagered on the CFP semifinals has been on Alabama-Michigan.

“The vast majority of the action right now is on Alabama,” he said. “We’re going to need Michigan big.”

Caesars will do well if the Wolverines win the title, though the book took a $50,000 wager to win $225,000 on Michigan at +450 odds earlier this season.

Feazel said Michigan and Alabama are the top two teams in the power ratings, and whoever wins is going to be favored in the national championship game.

Salmons said he bet on the Wolverines -1.

“I just think it’s their time to win,” he said. “I’ve had Michigan more than 1 (over Alabama) in my power ratings all year.”

The consensus total is 45 after opening at 45½ and ticking up to 46.

Texas has dipped to a 3½-point favorite over Washington at Circa Sports, Caesars and the South Point amid action on the Huskies.

“The public likes Alabama, and they definitely like Washington over Texas, which is really odd because they were all over Oregon against Washington laying 10 (in the Pac-12 title game),” Salmons said. “But now they’re convinced. They’re all over Washington.”

The consensus total for Texas-Washington is 63½.

“The action is pretty split (on Texas-Washington), but it’s not even close to the action on the Alabama game,” Feazel said. “We’re looking at one-third of the action on this game.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.