Texas-Arkansas under among college football best bets

It’s a new era in Austin, Texas. If that isn’t already apparent, it will be clear as the Longhorns face Arkansas.

Texas was 7-12 ATS as a home favorite under coach Tom Herman, who seemed to run his players into the ground in practice ahead of lesser opponents. Steve Sarkisian won’t mismanage the Longhorns’ roster the same way.

Sarkisian faced this Arkansas defense last year as Alabama’s offensive coordinator. Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom put together a good “bend, don’t break” unit that takes away the explosive play.

Despite a historic offense, Alabama was patient. That led to seven drives of at least seven plays, including touchdown drives of 13 and 14 plays in a 52-3 win. Alabama’s longest completion went for 23 yards.

Texas quarterback Hudson Card (24 career passes) and Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson (93 career passes) are green. Expect both coaches to protect them and the Longhorns to lean on running back Bijan Robinson.

Take Texas-Arkansas to go under 56½ points.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Texas A&M (-17) over COLORADO: Sam Noyer, Colorado’s starting quarterback last year, transferred when it became clear the Buffaloes brought in Tennessee transfer J.T. Shrout to start. But Shrout (knee) is out indefinitely. So last year’s backup, Brendon Lewis, is playing. He threw for 102 yards on 6.8 yards per attempt against Northern Colorado, which trailed Colorado only 21-7 in the fourth quarter last week. The Buffs ran 60.8 percent of the time last season. Texas A&M defensive end Michael Clemons should return to the lineup. The Aggies aren’t Georgia or Clemson on defense, but they’re good enough to shut down a below-average, one-dimensional Pac-12 offense.

North Carolina State (-1) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bulldogs allow pressure against three defenders and refuse to run the football. If teams drop eight into coverage, they present all kinds of issues for Mississippi State and the Air Raid offense. Louisiana Tech managed to force six turnovers and almost escaped with an upset win. This N.C. State defense is even better. Plus, a healthy Wolfpack QB Devin Leary gives the offense good balance to pair with Zonovan Knight, Ricky Person Jr. and a strong running game. N.C. State is 19th in my power ratings. They’re underrated and might be closer to Clemson than some realize.

Pittsburgh (-3) over TENNESSEE: Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has given no indication that Michigan transfer QB Joe Milton III is on a short leash. That’s concerning. His career completion percentage hovers around 55 percent. Outside of the initial scripted plays, he was awful against Bowling Green. He overthrew open receivers. He held the ball too long. He didn’t work through his progressions well. Now he faces a Pat Narduzzi defense that will stack the box against the run and put pressure in his face.

Toledo (+17) over NOTRE DAME: ESPN’s SP+ projects this line at 5.3 points on a neutral field. No matter how generous you are with Notre Dame’s home-field advantage, are the power ratings off by that much? Under new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame allowed touchdowns of 89 and 60 yards, plus 11 other plays that gained at least 10 yards in a 41-38 overtime win at Florida State. Toledo is a Mid-American Conference team, but it has the best skill position talent in the conference. The Fighting Irish are on a short week after an emotional win.

Last week: 4-1

Season: 4-1

Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith on Twitter.