UConn favored to three-peat as NCAA champs; UNLV in middle of MW
The march to March Madness starts Monday, and UConn is the clear favorite to three-peat as NCAA men’s basketball champions.
The Huskies, who have been a cash machine for bettors the last two NCAA Tournaments by going 12-0 against the spread, are the 8-1 favorites at the Westgate SuperBook to become the first team to win three consecutive national titles since UCLA won its seventh straight in 1973.
“That’s two NCAA Tournaments in a row (UConn) just blew through everybody like they weren’t even there. I’ve never seen anything like it,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “I don’t want to bet against (Huskies coach) Dan Hurley.”
Hurley turned down a $70 million offer to coach the Los Angeles Lakers to stay at UConn and chase history.
“They have as good a shot as anyone to actually pull it off,” Caesars Sportsbook college basketball lead Rich Zanco said. “They’ll definitely have a target on their back just to get out of the Big East unscathed, but they’ll have a great shot.”
Duke, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, is tied for the 12-1 second choice at the SuperBook with Kansas, Houston and Alabama.
“The betting public can’t get enough of teams like Duke and Kansas,” Zanco said. “The typical blue-chip teams.”
Rolling with Tide
Caesars also has taken a lot of action on Alabama, which lost to UConn in the Final Four last season.
“There is recency bias with teams like Alabama, which finally delivered in the tournament last year with a deep run,” Zanco said. “(Crimson Tide coach) Nate Oats finally delivered a great season for that school. We opened them a little higher, at 22-1, and they bet it all the way down to 12-1 and we’re still seeing action come in on that team.”
Zanco said Caesars also has some liability on Houston, which is 15-1 to win it all, and Iowa State (22-1). They also have liability on longer shots Cincinnati (175-1) and Providence (500-1).
The Bearcats are ranked No. 20 in The Associated Press’ Top 25 poll, but Zanco doesn’t see them making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
“Cincinnati, now in the Big 12, will have to, forget Kansas, battle teams like Houston, Arizona, Baylor and Iowa State,” he said.
Murray said the SuperBook has taken a lot of money on St. John’s, lowering it from 60-1 to 50-1. Gonzaga was also lowered from 20-1 to 16-1 after being bet on heavily.
UCLA, ranked No. 22, is the largest liability at the SuperBook.
“We lowered them from 100-1 to 40-1,” Murray said. “They’ve been real popular.”
Mountain West odds
Caesars has posted odds on regular-season conference winners, and Zanco said the book has taken sharp money on Tennessee (5-1) to win the SEC and Xavier (6-1) to win the Big East.
San Diego State is the +280 favorite to win the Mountain West, followed by UNR and New Mexico at +375, and Boise State at +425.
Utah State is 7-1 and UNLV and Colorado State are each 9-1.
“There’s a lot of support out there for UNLV and (UNR),” Zanco said. “We opened UNLV a little higher, at 22-1. They took that and they bet that down to 9-1.
“We opened (UNR) at 16-1, so they bet them all the way down as well.”
The Aztecs lost to UConn in the 2023 NCAA title game and the Mountain West sent a record six teams to the NCAA Tournament last season.
“There’s a lot of interest in the Mountain West,” Zanco said. “Usually, only one or two teams make the tournament, so it’s as competitive as it ever has been. It’s always been a competitive conference. There are no easy games.
“UNLV should be in the middle of the pack in that conference. But they’re certainly capable of the front end. It’s not like we have a clear-cut, dominant favorite up top.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
