Virginia, N.C. State QBs should help push number over total

Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins was electric while leading the Cavaliers to their first Atlantic Coast Conference championship game.

Considering the talent drain at Virginia’s skill positions in recent years and the way the offense looked when Perkins was hurt, it was easy to question how the Cavaliers’ attack would look this season without him.

Enter Brennan Armstrong and two 6-foot-7-inch receiving targets. Armstrong threw for 270 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson and rushed for 89 yards.

Now he faces a North Carolina State defense that gave up 42 points to Wake Forest and 45 to a Virginia Tech team missing more than 20 players. The Wolfpack allowed Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett to throw for 411 yards — the same Pickett who had never threatened the 400-yard mark in 33 previous games.

N.C. State has found its own quarterback in Devin Leary. The former four-star recruit missed some time during fall practice and was not ready for the season opener. He took over in the second half at Virginia Tech and led a come-from-behind win against a stiff Pitt defense in his first start.

Leary has completed 40 of 60 passes for 501 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.

The total on this game opened at 55 and jolted upward, so you’re not getting the best price. But you won’t always get the best number betting late in the week. That said, take over 60.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

South Carolina (-13½) over VANDERBILT: The Gamecocks’ pass catchers did QB Collin Hill no favors against Florida with plenty of drops and missed opportunities. But running backs Kevin Harris and Deshaun Fenwick looked impressive. A toothless Commodores offense will make sure Hill and Harris have plenty of possessions to clean up the mistakes. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp needs a good showing on the scoreboard before facing a string of tough Southeastern Conference West opponents.

SYRACUSE (+1½) over Duke: The Orange have made 20 tackles for loss in three games. The Syracuse secondary should have no problem against a Blue Devils squad devoid of wide receivers. Duke QB Chase Brice has completed only 52.6 percent of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt, three TDs and seven interceptions. And Duke has allowed 35 tackles for loss and fumbled nine times.

Texas-San Antonio (+35) over BRIGHAM YOUNG: Expect UTSA QB Frank Harris (knee sprain) to return to action. That’s key for the Roadrunners, who scored 51 in a double-overtime win against Texas State and 37 in a win over Middle Tennessee State. BYU’s three opponents have scored a combined 24 points. I also expect regression to the mean for QB Zach Wilson (84.5 percent completion rate) and the Cougars, who are converting drives into touchdowns at an unsustainable clip.

WESTERN KENTUCKY (+7½) over Marshall: Thundering Herd QB Grant Wells looked like a Heisman candidate against Eastern Kentucky, but he was 11 of 25 for 163 yards and an interception against a stouter Appalachian State defense. The Hilltoppers’ pass defense might be even better. I expect a low-scoring game. Western Kentucky would have been favored in this game before the season. The market has adjusted too far on both these teams based on a small sample size.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 10-10

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.