Week 18 challenges bookmakers with motivational angles, COVID

Week 18 of the NFL season can force sportsbooks to do some strange things.

Circa Sports has the Green Bay Packers favored by 3½ points at the Detroit Lions — a line sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said he knows is wrong. The Packers should be favored by more or fewer, depending on whether their starters will play Sunday, and for how long.

But that’s not clear right now. All Bennett can do now is wait, monitor all the news outlets and be ready to move the line aggressively if respected bettors start firing in limit wagers.

“Week 18 is by far the most challenging week of the NFL season to book,” Bennett said. “… It’s tough when you’re going to hang a line where you know it’s going to close a lot different that you’re hanging.”

Handicapping the final week of the NFL regular season has always involved looking at motivational angles. Does a team have something to play for? Will teams that are out of the playoffs play hard, especially for a lame-duck coach?

Now layer in the risk of player absences because of COVID protocols, which could crop up at any time. A great handicapping number on Wednesday could become an awful one by Sunday.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito pointed out that motivations can change even during the game. The New England Patriots can win the AFC East on Sunday with a win over Miami and a Buffalo loss to the New York Jets.

“If the Bills are up 34-3 midway through the second quarter, do the Patriots keep their starters in?” Esposito asked. “You have to scoreboard watch to some degree.”

Besides Packers-Lions, some of the games bookmakers have had to keep a close eye on include:

— Dallas at Philadelphia: The line opened Cowboys -3 with the teams expected to be at full strength, went to -7 on the news that the Eagles were likely resting key players, then has come back down to -4½ with Dallas now expected to do the same.

— Cincinnati at Cleveland: The game opened Bengals -3 when it appeared they were playing for playoff seeding, but has shifted to Browns -6 with Cincinnati opting to rest banged-up quarterback Joe Burrow and running back Joe Mixon in COVID protocol. Bennett said he was glad this news came out early in the week.

— Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers can move up from the No. 3 seed to No. 2 if they win and the Rams lose, but is that enough reason to play quarterback Tom Brady and the other starters against the Panthers? Bettors seem skeptical, as the line is sitting at Bucs -8 despite them laying -10½ in Carolina two weeks ago (and winning 32-6).

Bennett said his goal is to not get hit with a limit bet on the same side three times in a row, moving the line multiple points quickly if necessary.

It’s a rush, but it’s not fun.

“I don’t enjoy that because I can’t schedule my life around it,” he said. “I don’t want to sit in front of my computer every hour of the day.”

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.