Weekend best bets: Will ’dog days continue in NFL?

Last week was so bad for NFL bettors that Circa is offering empathy packages to the 10,389 contestants who already have been eliminated from the $1,000-entry Circa Survivor.

Underdogs went 10-4-1 against the spread in NFL Week 2 with eight outright wins to crush most bettors. But it was a glorious week for VSiN handicapper Dave Tuley, who always takes underdogs and went 5-0 against the spread in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge.

“I only bet ’dogs, but I don’t bet every ’dog. You don’t have to bet every game. There’s always another game coming up soon,” said Tuley (@ViewFromVegas). “I’ve built a reputation as a ’dog-only bettor, but that hasn’t always been the case.

“I cringe when I look back at articles I wrote earlier this century at Daily Racing Form when I would try to make a case for favorites. I was always a long-shot handicapping on the ponies and finally realized I also fared much better with underdogs in the human sports.”

If Tuley can’t make a case for the underdog, he sticks to his dogmatic ‘dog or pass’ approach and passes on the game. But he said that’s not a buy sign to bet the favorite.

“Unfortunately, when I’ve tried to do that over the years, I’ve lost far more often than I’ve won,” he said.

Tuley, tied for the lead in the RJ contest with a 7-3 ATS record, said the Rams are his best bet this week as 7½-point home underdogs to the 49ers.

“The Rams were blown out by the Cardinals and are losing receivers left and right, so this line has gone from 49ers -6½ on the advance line at the Westgate last week and crossed the key number of 7 to 7½,” he said. “However, the 49ers are also missing major offensive weapons and are coming off a disappointing loss at Minnesota, so it doesn’t make sense to me that they should be more than a touchdown favorite – on the road again, no less.

“This is also a divisional game with teams and coaching staffs very familiar with each other, and that usually has value on the underdog in what should be a hard-fought, close game.”

Here are three other best bets.

Giants (+6½) over BROWNS

Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay is tied for the lead in the RJ Challenge with a 6-2-2 ATS record (seven points) after going 4-0-1 ATS last week.

Kornegay said the Giants are his best bet. New York, which has lost and failed to cover its first two games, is a 6½-point underdog at Cleveland.

Embattled quarterback Deshaun Watson leads the Browns (1-1, 1-1 ATS).

“The Browns haven’t run the ball consistently, and I certainly don’t trust Watson laying close to a touchdown,” Kornegay said. “It feels like a close game and one the Giants blow late.”

Packers (+2½) over TITANS

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw played Green Bay +3 but still recommends the Packers at +2½.

Green Bay beat the Colts 16-10 last week at Lambeau Field behind former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (151 yards rushing) and backup quarterback Malik Willis, who completed 12 of 14 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown.

“Green Bay has the better defense,” Whitelaw said. “Jacobs is making a difference at running back, and they should be a small favorite even with Willis at quarterback.”

Eagles (+3, -120) over SAINTS

New Orleans has exploded for 91 points in a surprising 2-0 start. But pro handicapper Scott Pritchard predicts Saints bettors will not be marching to the window to collect winnings this week.

“Saints quarterback Derek Carr has never won anything and is not going to start now. Philly an eyelash from being 2-0 and should be,” said Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com). “Better team with a chip on their shoulder. See the cashier.”

Pritchard is off to a hot start in several contests. He’s tied for first place in the Westgate SuperContest (9-1 ATS) and Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Contest (11-3 ATS). He’s tied for second in the Circa Million (8-2 ATS).

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.