Westgate SuperContest winner backs Dolphins, Texans

Trying to pick NFL winners against the spread can be as confounding as some of the most complex coffee orders.

Just ask local Starbucks barista Damon Graham, who only a few days after winning more than $900,000 in the Westgate SuperContest was back at work concocting a sugar-free, soy, extra-caramel macchiato with whipped cream.

“I don’t know why they want whipped cream with sugar free and soy,” Graham said.

The humble 32-year-old bachelor had a much easier time deciphering point spreads this season, as he went 54-28-3 ATS to outlast 1,853 other bettors in the nation’s most prestigious NFL handicapping contest. Mark Jorstad, a farmer from Illinois, finished a game behind Graham in second place — worth $358,193 — with a 53-29-3 record.

We asked the unlikely duo to handicap the NFL’s wild-card weekend. Graham likes the Miami Dolphins as 10-point road underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers (10:05 a.m. Sunday) and the Houston Texans as 3½-point home favorites over the Oakland Raiders (1:35 p.m. Saturday).

“I think (Miami is) going to grind it out with Jay Ajayi and keep control of the ball. Pittsburgh’s defense is not what it was,” Graham said. “They’re going to make it a short game so they don’t expose their defense to the killer B’s (Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell).”

Ajayi rushed for 204 yards on 25 carries in Miami’s 30-15 home win over Pittsburgh in October.

The line opened at 10 before climbing to 10½ at most Las Vegas books.

Graham, who went 5-0 ATS in Week 17 and 13-2 the final three weeks of the season, said the Dolphins were good to him in the contest and so were the Texans at Houston, where they tied for the NFL’s best home record at 7-1.

He’s counting on Houston’s top-ranked defense to offset the subpar play of quarterback Brock Osweiler and to harass Connor Cook, Oakland’s third-string rookie quarterback making his first career start.

“I feel, emotionally, Oakland has checked out with Derek Carr hurt,” Graham said. “Osweiler’s not good, but the Houston defense will turn over Cook and give him a short field.”

The Texans opened as 3-point favorites, and the line quickly moved to 3½ at most books and has climbed to 4 at a few spots.

Jorstad likes the Raiders and the Green Bay Packers as 5-point home favorites over the New York Giants (1:40 p.m. Sunday).

“I’m not an Osweiler fan, and when I can get points in a playoff game with a team I think can win the game, I take them,” he said. “I really like the Packers. Right now, Aaron Rodgers is on fire, and they’re in Green Bay. The Giants’ offense is so erratic. I think they’re going to have to score 30 points or more to beat the Packers, and I just don’t see it.”

Green Bay, which has won six straight games despite a suspect secondary, opened as a 4½-point favorite in the weekend’s marquee matchup, and the line dropped to 4 before Packers money pushed it to 5½. The line has settled at 5 at most books.

Graham and Jorstad lean toward the Seahawks as 8-point home favorites over the Detroit Lions in Saturday’s 5:15 p.m. game. Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game in 25 years, and Seattle, which went 7-1 at home, is 20-4-2 ATS in its past 26 night games.

While Graham went 5-0 ATS on Sunday by playing opposite sides of his top five plays on his second entry in the SuperContest, he doesn’t advise betting against the Dolphins and Texans.

“I like those two a lot,” he said. “They should go with them.”

SUPER PROP

Station Casinos has posted a prop bet on 20 possible Super Bowl matchups, ranging from Patriots-Cowboys, the 3-2 favorite, to Raiders-Falcons, the 150-1 long shot. The odds will be adjusted after the wild-card games.

Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said the one that has drawn the most action is Patriots-Giants at 10-1, followed by the Patriots-Seahawks at 7-1. Despite Carr’s absence, Esposito said some bettors also have taken a flier on Raiders-Cowboys at 75-1.

Graham, a Giants fan, said he wants to see another Patriots-Giants showdown but is predicting a Steelers-Falcons matchup (16-1 odds). Jorstad is going with the Patriots-Cowboys.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.om or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.