What is a bad beat? Browns, Cardinals don’t qualify
Let’s get philosophical: What is a bad beat?
Is it any time the betting result flips in the final minute? Is it any time something strange occurs that affects the winner?
Two NFL games Sunday are instructive in answering the question.
First, Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb made a lot of friends and enemies in the final minute against the Houston Texans. The Browns (-4½) were clinging to a 10-7 lead and merely trying to run out the clock when Chubb broke free and raced down the sideline.
Browns bettors rejoiced and Texans bettors despaired for a couple of seconds, then Chubb casually stepped out of bounds at the 1-yard line after a 59-yard run. He knew that stopping short would allow the Browns to kneel out the clock and end the game, while scoring to go up 17-7 would still leave Cleveland in some tiny danger of losing, no matter how unlikely.
This was not a bad beat. The Browns led only 3-0 entering the fourth quarter. They were covering -4½ at 10-0 for only about eight minutes of game time before the Texans cut the lead to 10-7 with 4:59 to go.
A Chubb TD would have been a bad beat for Texans backers. (Also, Browns bettors could have had -3 earlier in the week to get a push.)
Second, the Arizona Cardinals pulled off the play of the season when DeAndre Hopkins pulled down a 43-yard Hail Mary from Kyler Murray with two seconds left to beat the Buffalo Bills 32-30.
That came after the Bills took a 30-26 lead with 34 seconds remaining on a 21-yard strike from Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs.
The most interesting betting wrinkle came when the Cardinals (-3) decided to kneel on the extra point instead of risking a blocked kick that could have been returned for a tying two points.
So Bills backers still got to the window — and they should have. The Bills led 23-9 early in the third quarter, and the Bills never trailed by more than three. (Also, Cardinals bettors could have had -1½ earlier in the week.)
Browns -4½ and Cardinals -3 lost in freak occurrences, but they were not bad beats.
Here are the real worst bad beats of the sports betting week:
3. Under 56 Bills-Cardinals
Here’s the betting result to bemoan from Buffalo-Arizona. Losing this one required both TD passes in the final 34 seconds, including the Hail Mary that Hopkins caught three-on-one against Bills defenders.
The beat was especially egregious for bettors who had under 56½, as they watched a winner turn into a loser instead of a push into a loser on the Hopkins TD.
2. Toledo +1½
Gotta love Wednesday MACtion. Toledo never trailed and took a 38-28 lead with 2:54 remaining against Western Michigan.
The Broncos scored with 45 seconds remaining to cut the lead to 38-34; then things went off the rails. They missed the extra point, meaning that now they had to have another touchdown. A field goal could not force overtime.
Western Michigan then recovered the onside kick when a Bronco reached out with one arm and pulled the ball in as a group of Toledo defenders dived for it.
Western Michigan completed a pass to the 9 with 23 seconds left and the clock running. The Broncos rushed to the line, and quarterback Kaleb Eleby faked a clock-stopping spike and instead threw to a wide open Jaylen Hall for the TD with 17 seconds remaining.
Western Michigan wins 41-38.
1. Over 51 Oregon State-Washington
The worst bad beats are the ones that bettors don’t see coming.
Washington led Oregon State 24-21 at halftime, meaning only seven points were needed in the second half to push the total over. Congratulations, over bettors. Kick back and relax.
Or maybe don’t. Washington missed a 28-yard field goal, then Oregon State was stopped on fourth-and-1 at the Washington 5 on a questionable spot.
In the final minutes, Washington had first-and-goal at the Oregon State 5 and settled for a 23-yard field goal.
Final: Washington 27, Oregon State 21. That’s 45 points in the first half and three in the second.
Under 51 wins.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.
