What to bet on Tuesday, with pick on Knights game (updated)

There are two more NBA playoff games and 18 baseball games Tuesday, but Las Vegas sports fans’ focus will be on the Golden Knights, who hope to avoid a 2-0 hole in the Western Conference Final.

Here’s the betting menu for Tuesday (odds at the Westgate, updated at 11:50 a.m.):

NBA

(All games at Lake Buena Vista, Florida)

Milwaukee (+160 ML) vs. Miami (-4, total 218½, -180 ML), Game 5, 3:30 p.m.

Holding a 3-1 lead, the Heat are poised to be favored in a game for the first time in the Eastern Conference semifinal series. A lot of that has to do with the status of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is questionable with a sprained right ankle. But so far, the wrong team appears to have been favored in this series anyway. Fourth-seeded Miami has largely controlled play, especially late, and nearly pulled off the sweep before losing Game 4 in overtime. Top-seeded Milwaukee was favored by 5 or 5½ points in the first three games, then by 2 for Game 4. The total is down from 223½ for Game 1 and 220 in Game 4 after three of the games went under in regulation (Game 4 went over in OT). The Heat are -1,000 to win the series (Bucks +650).

Line movement: Miami up from -2½. Total up from 217. Heat series price up from -800.

Los Angeles Lakers (-4½, 222½, -200) vs. Houston (+175), Game 3, 6 p.m.

The spread continues to drop for the Western Conference semifinal series, despite the Lakers covering in Game 2. Los Angeles was favored by 6½ in Game 1 (a 112-97 loss) and by 5½ in Game 2 (a 117-109 victory). The total has yo-yoed with the game results. Game 1 went under 227, then Game 2 went over 223. The Lakers are -360 to win the series (Rockets +300).

Line movement: Los Angeles down from -5. Total down from 225. Los Angeles series price down from -400.

NHL

(At Edmonton, Alberta)

Golden Knights (-150, 5½ under -115) vs. Dallas (+135), Game 2, 5 p.m.

The Stars let the Knights know the Western Conference Final wouldn’t be a cakewalk with a 1-0 victory in Game 1. Goaltender Robin Lehner should be back in net for Vegas, but Marc-Andre Fleury was hardly the issue in Game 1. The line has barely shifted for Game 2 after the Knights were -165 in Game 1 (shifted further this morning). The total is down from 6 after the defensive battle. The Knights were -240 to win the series before Game 1. That number shifted to -120 after the loss but has moved back to -135 (Stars +115). Look for more analysis and a handicapper’s pick on the game below.

Line movement: Knights down from -160. Total now juiced to under after being 5½ -110. Knights series price down from -140.

MLB

(Pitchers subject to change)

(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)

Minnesota (-125, 6½ over -115) at St. Louis (+115), 12:15 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Minnesota’s Jose Berrios (RHP, 3-3, 4.29 ERA, 4.21 xFIP) vs. St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez (RHP, 0-1, 14.73 ERA, 6.08 xFIP)

Note: Martinez is making his second start of the season.

Minnesota (-138, 7 over -115) at St. Louis (+128), about 3:15 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Minnesota’s Randy Dobnak (RHP, 6-2, 2.72 ERA, 4.18 xFIP) vs. St. Louis’ Daniel Ponce de Leon (RHP, 0-3, 7.82 ERA, 6.42 xFIP)

Boston (+170) at Philadelphia (-185, 7½ under -120), 1:05 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Boston’s Martin Perez (LHP, 2-4, 4.07 ERA, 5.39 xFIP) vs. Philadelphia’s Zach Eflin (RHP, 2-1, 4.45 ERA, 3.17 xFIP)

Boston (+160) at Philadelphia (-170, 8½ under -120), about 4:05 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Boston’s Chris Mazza (RHP, 0-1, 6.00 ERA, 4.44 xFIP) vs. Philadelphia’s Vince Velasquez (RHP, 0-0, 6.60 ERA, 5.17 xFIP)

Tampa Bay (-145, 9½ over -115) at Washington (+135), 3:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Tampa Bay’s Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, 0-2, 3.65 ERA, 4.33 xFIP) vs. Washington’s Anibal Sanchez (RHP, 1-4, 6.48 ERA, 5.58 xFIP)

Line movement: Tampa Bay down from -155. Juice on total shifts from under -120 to over -115.

Kansas City (+185) at Cleveland (-205, 8½ over -115), 3:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Kansas City’s Jakob Junis (RHP, 0-1, 4.32 ERA, 5.32 xFIP) vs. Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie (RHP, 2-0, 1.69 ERA, 3.36 xFIP)

Line movement: Cleveland down from -220.

Oakland (+125) vs. Houston (-135, 6½ over -115), 3:10 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Oakland’s Frankie Montas (RHP, 2-3, 6.06 ERA, 5.03 xFIP) vs. Houston’s Zack Greinke (RHP, 3-0, 2.91 ERA, 3.75 xFIP)

Note: Houston will play as home team despite game being in Oakland.

Houston (+124) at Oakland (-134, 8½ under -115), about 6:10 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Undecided vs. Oakland’s Mike Minor (LHP, 0-5, 5.94 ERA, 4.78 xFIP)

Note: No starter declared yet for Houston.

New York Yankees (+102) vs. Toronto (-112, 10½ under -115), 3:37 p.m. at Buffalo, New York

Probable pitchers: New York’s J.A. Happ (LHP, 1-1, 4.68 ERA, 5.46 xFIP) vs. Toronto’s Taijuan Walker (RHP, 3-2, 3.26 ERA, 4.78 xFIP)

Line movement: Total up from 10 over -115.

Chicago White Sox (-130, 9½ under -115) at Pittsburgh (+120), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Chicago’s Dylan Cease (RHP, 5-2, 3.29 ERA, 5.85 xFIP) vs. Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove (RHP, 0-4, 6.62 ERA, 4.47 xFIP)

Line movement: Chicago down from -142.

Miami (+104) at Atlanta (-114, 9 over -120), 4:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Miami’s Sixto Sanchez (RHP, 1-1, 2.37 ERA, 2.65 xFIP) vs. Atlanta’s Kyle Wright (RHP, 0-3, 7.20 ERA, 6.32 xFIP)

Milwaukee (-148, 9 under -120) at Detroit (+138), 4:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser (RHP, 1-3, 4.97 ERA, 3.81 xFIP) vs. Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (RHP, 3-2, 3.89 ERA, 5.16 xFIP)

Line movement: Milwaukee up sharply from -120. Total up from 8½ over -115.

Baltimore (+165) at New York Mets (-180, 9), 4:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Baltimore’s John Means (LHP, 0-3, 8.10 ERA, 6.08 xFIP) vs. New York’s Michael Wacha (RHP, 1-2, 7.20 ERA, 4.25 xFIP)

Line movement: New York down from -185. Total down sharply from 10 under -120.

Los Angeles Angels (-124, 8) at Texas (+114), 5:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Andrew Heaney (LHP, 3-2, 3.89 ERA, 4.06 xFIP) vs. Texas’ Lance Lynn (RHP, 4-2, 2.67 ERA, 4.25 xFIP)

Cincinnati (-105) at Chicago Cubs (-105, 7½ over -120), 5:15 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (RHP, 1-1, 3.90 ERA, 4.76 xFIP) vs. Chicago’s Alec Mills (RHP, 3-3, 5.50 ERA, 4.78 xFIP)

Line movement: Chicago down from -116.

Colorado (+210) at San Diego (-240, 8½ over -120), 6:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Colorado’s Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP, 0-0, 5.00 ERA, 4.67 xFIP) vs. San Diego’s Mike Clevinger (RHP, 1-2, 3.14 ERA, 4.85 xFIP)

Line movement: Total down from 9 under -115.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-250, 9) at Arizona (+220), 6:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Walker Buehler (RHP, 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) vs. Arizona’s Luke Weaver (RHP, 1-6, 7.44 ERA, 4.59 xFIP)

Line movement: Los Angeles up from -220. Juice on total now flat after being under -115.

Seattle (+150) at San Francisco (-160, 9 under -120), 6:45 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Seattle’s Ljay Newsome (RHP, 0-0, 2.57 ERA, 3.68 xFIP) vs. San Francisco’s Logan Webb (RHP, 2-3, 4.71 ERA, 4.30 xFIP)

Line movement: San Francisco up from -155. Total up from 8½ -110.

What happened Monday

College football

— Brigham Young (-1) crushed Navy 55-3. The game went over 48½. The line shifted from Navy -2½ to BYU -1½ to Navy -1 to BYU -2 in the week leading up to kickoff, but the Cougars made it clear that they were the right side. The total steadily moved down from 53½, but BYU’s barrage was too much for under bettors. The Cougars outgained Navy 580-149, including 301-119 on the ground.

NBA

Favorites went 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 against the spread. Totals went 2-0 to the under.

— Boston (-2) regained control of the Eastern Conference semifinal series with a 111-89 victory over Toronto to take a 3-2 lead. The game stayed under 212½. Every game in the series has gone under. The Celtics had lost two in a row after winning the first two games. Boston led by 14 after the first quarter and by 27 at halftime. The Celtics shot 49.4 percent from the field to Toronto’s 38.8.

— Denver (+8½) covered in a 113-107 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, who took a 2-1 lead in the Western Conference semifinal series. The game stayed under 220½ by a whisker. The Nuggets led by four entering the fourth quarter, but Los Angeles clamped down, holding Denver to 19 points in the final period. Paul George had 32 points for the Clippers, who shot 54.7 percent from the field.

NHL

— Tampa Bay (-155) destroyed the New York Islanders 8-2 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final. The game sailed over 5 before the second period was over. The Lightning outshot the Islanders 34-24. Tampa Bay led 3-1 after the first period and 5-1 after the second. The Lightning had a weeklong rest after finishing their previous series in five games, while the Islanders won a Game 7 on Saturday.

MLB

Favorites went 10-1, with Miami scoring the lone upset (+200 at Atlanta). Totals went 7-3-1 to the under.

Hot Corner handicapper selection

Stars +145

Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 4-4, -0.37 units): The Stars controlled Game 1 physically against the Golden Knights, who were checked out mentally until the third period. The Knights managed only 12 shots in the first two periods, finding little room through the neutral zone to create offense. The Stars are the second-best defensive team in the postseason, and they create scoring chances from their relentless pursuit of the puck better than anyone. Ryan Reaves will be back for Vegas, but the price is too good to pass up on Dallas.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.