What to bet on Wednesday, with handicapper’s NHL pick (updated)

Wednesday brings another Game 7 in the NBA, but it will be hard to match Tuesday’s finish.

Denver beat Utah 80-78 in Game 7 of their first-round Western Conference series when Mike Conley’s 3-pointer at the buzzer rimmed out to end a wild final sequence. Two Nuggets money-line bets of $500,000 or more cashed when Conley missed.

Now Houston faces Oklahoma City in Game 7 of their first-round Western Conference series.

Here’s the betting menu for Wednesday (odds at the Westgate, updated at 10:15 a.m.):

NBA

(All games at Lake Buena Vista, Florida)

Milwaukee (-5½, total 221, -240 ML) vs. Miami (+200), Game 2, 3:30 p.m.

The top-seeded Bucks will try to get back on track in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series after losing 115-104 to the Heat in Game 1. That game opened Milwaukee -5½ and closed -5. Wednesday’s game opened Milwaukee -4½ after Miami’s big win and has moved to -5 with bettors expecting the Bucks to bounce back. (It hit -5½ Wednesday morning.) The total is down from Game 1’s 223½ after the opener went under. Despite being in a 1-0 hole, the Bucks are still -185 to win the series (Heat +165).

Line movement: Milwaukee up from -5.

Houston (-5½, 217½, -215) vs. Oklahoma City (+185), Game 7, 6 p.m.

The Rockets have won three games in this series by a combined 62 points, but still find themselves in a Game 7 against the resilient Thunder. Oklahoma City’s wins came by 12 (in overtime), three and and four. The Game 7 spread is the same as Game 6, which the Thunder won 104-100. The total is down sharply from 226½ after Game 6 went well under. Denver’s 80-78 victory over Utah on Tuesday was a reminder of how scoring can tighten up in a Game 7.

Line movement: Total down from 218½. ML down from Houston -240.

NHL

Colorado (-110, 6 over -120) vs. Dallas (+100), Game 6, 5 p.m. at Edmonton, Alberta

The underdog Stars get another chance to close out the Western Conference semifinal series after failing to show up in the Avalanche’s 6-3 win in Game 5. Colorado led 5-0 in the first period, battering goaltender Ben Bishop, who played for the first time since Aug. 13. Anton Khudobin is likely to be back in net for Dallas. Third-string Avalanche goalie Michael Hutchinson won in his first career playoff start. It is uncertain whether he or backup Pavel Francouz will start Game 6. Injured starter Philipp Grubauer has been ruled out. The Stars are -275 to win the series (Avalanche +235). Every game in the series has gone over the total. Look for more analysis and a handicapper’s pick on the game below.

Line movement: Colorado down from -122.

MLB

(Pitchers subject to change)

(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)

San Francisco (+122) at Colorado (-132, 11½ over -115), 12:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: San Francisco’s Logan Webb (RHP, 2-3, 4.35 ERA, 4.24 xFIP) vs. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (LHP, 2-1, 3.43 ERA, 3.97 xFIP)

Line movement: Total down from 12 over -115.

New York Mets (-140, 10 over -115) at Baltimore (+130), 1:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: New York’s Michael Wacha (RHP, 1-2, 7.41 ERA, 3.74 xFIP) vs. Baltimore’s John Means (LHP, 0-2, 8.59 ERA, 5.60 xFIP)

St. Louis (+138) at Cincinnati (-148, 10 over -115), 3:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: St. Louis’ Johan Oviedo (RHP, 0-1, 3.60 ERA, 5.49 xFIP) vs. Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (RHP, 1-1, 3.91 ERA, 4.22 xFIP)

Line movement: Cincinnati up from -140. Total juiced over after being 10 -110.

Toronto (-117, 7½ under -120) at Miami (+107), 3:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Toronto’s Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP, 2-1, 2.92 ERA, 3.03 xFIP) vs. Miami’s Sixto Sanchez (RHP, 1-0, 2.25 ERA, 2.20 xFIP)

Line movement: Toronto down from -130. Total juiced to under after being 7½ -110.

Chicago Cubs (-185, 9½ under -115) at Pittsburgh (+170), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks (RHP, 3-4, 4.09 ERA, 3.74 xFIP) vs. Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove (RHP, 0-3, 6.75 ERA, 5.28 xFIP)

Tampa Bay (+118) at New York Yankees (-128, 9 under -120), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Tampa Bay’s Charlie Morton (RHP, 1-1, 5.40 ERA, 4.77 xFIP) vs. New York’s Jordan Montgomery (LHP, 2-1, 4.44 ERA, 3.88 xFIP)

Line movement: New York up from -110.

Washington (-117, 8½ under -115) at Philadelphia (+107), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Washington’s Max Scherzer (RHP, 3-1, 3.86 ERA, 2.94 xFIP) vs. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (RHP, 3-0, 2.58 ERA, 3.92 xFIP)

Line movement: Total up from 8 under -115.

Atlanta (-148, 11 under -115) at Boston (+138), 4:30 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Atlanta’s Robbie Erlin (LHP, 0-0, 6.00 ERA, 5.46 xFIP) vs. Boston’s Mike Kickham (LHP, season debut)

Note: Kickham has not pitched in the majors since 2014.

Detroit (+152) at Milwaukee (-162, 9), 4:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (RHP, 3-2, 2.97 ERA, 4.95 xFIP) vs. Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser (RHP, 1-3, 4.36 ERA, 3.75 xFIP)

Line movement: Milwaukee up from -153. Total juice now flat after being under -115.

Cleveland (-155, 9 under -115) at Kansas City (+145), 5:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie (RHP, 1-0, 2.70 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) vs. Kansas City’s Jakob Junis (RHP, 0-0, 4.26 ERA, 5.23 xFIP)

Chicago White Sox (+147) at Minnesota (-157, 9½ under -115), 5:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Chicago’s Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 6.46 xFIP) vs. Minnesota’s Jose Berrios (RHP, 2-3, 4.75 ERA, 4.35 xFIP)

Line movement: Minnesota up from -144. Total juiced to under after being 9½ -110.

Texas (+175) at Houston (-190, 8½ over -120), 5:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Texas’ Kolby Allard (LHP, 0-3, 6.50 ERA, 5.64 xFIP) vs. Houston’s Cristian Javier (RHP, 3-1, 3.77 ERA, 4.73 xFIP)

Line movement: Houston down from -215. Total down from 9 -110.

San Diego (-210, 9½ under -120) at Los Angeles Angels (+190), 6:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: San Diego’s Dinelson Lamet (RHP, 2-1, 2.35 ERA, 3.93 xFIP) vs. Los Angeles’ Julio Teheran (RHP, 0-2, 9.17 ERA, 5.92 xFIP)

Line movement: San Diego up sharply from -165. Total juiced to under after being 9½ -110.

Arizona (+180) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 8 under -120), 6:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Arizona’s Zac Gallen (RHP, 1-0, 2.09 ERA, 3.68 xFIP) vs. Los Angeles’ Walker Buehler (RHP, 1-0, 4.32 ERA, 4.14 xFIP)

What happened Tuesday

NBA

Favorites went 1-1 straight-up and against the spread. Totals went 2-0 to the under.

— Boston (+2) rode a fourth-quarter surge from Marcus Smart to beat Toronto 102-99 and take a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The game stayed under 218½. The No. 3 seed Celtics outscored the No. 2 Raptors by 11 points in the fourth quarter. Smart hit five straight 3-pointers, including a four-point play, in the quarter, turning a 78-70 deficit into an 86-85 lead. Fred VanVleet missed a 3-pointer to tie at the buzzer for Toronto to cap a dreadful night (8 of 22 from the field, 3 of 12 on 3-pointers). The Raptors hit only 11 of 40 3s as a team. Jayson Tatum led Boston with 34 points, eight rebounds and six assists and hit all 14 of his free throws.

— Denver (-1½) survived to beat Utah 80-78 in Game 7 of their first-round Western Conference series, completing a comeback from a 3-1 deficit. The game stayed comically under 217½. The Nuggets by 19 points at 55-36 one minute into the third quarter. They scored only 25 points in the rest of the game, but still won. In a wild final sequence, Utah’s Donovan Mitchell turned the ball over with 11 seconds remaining. Denver pushed the ball upcourt, but Torrey Craig missed a layup with about six seconds left that would have sealed the win. Jazz center Rudy Gobert grabbed the rebound and flipped the ball to Conley, who missed a 3-pointer for the win at the buzzer.

The final game matched the wild swings of the series. Denver was -310 to win the series before Game 1 (Jazz +260). Those odds then swung all the way to Utah -1,000 after it took the 3-1 lead (Nuggets +650).

NHL

Favorites went 0-2. Totals split 1-1.

— Philadelphia (+100) stayed alive with a 4-3 overtime victory over the New York Islanders in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The game went over 5. Both of the top-seeded Flyers wins in the series have come in overtime. Philadelphia took a 3-1 lead early in the third period, but the sixth-seeded Islanders rallied to force OT. The teams were dead-even 32-32 in shots.

— Vancouver (+200) refused to give in to the Golden Knights, earning a 2-1 victory in Game 5 to extend the Western Conference semifinal series. The game stayed under 6. Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko stood on his head in his first playoff start, stopping 42 shots. Overall, the Knights dominated play, outshooting Vancouver 43-17. The Canucks appeared to flip in an empty-net goal at the horn, but it didn’t count, affecting some reverse puck-line and other live bets. Conflicting clocks did not provide a definitive answer.

MLB

Favorites went 9-4, with upsets by Texas (+220 at Houston), Detroit (+175 at Milwaukee), St. Louis (+150 at Cincinnati) and Baltimore (+125 vs. the New York Mets).

Totals went 9-4 to the over, including San Francisco’s 23-5 win over Colorado (total 11½) and St. Louis’ 16-2 victory over Cincinnati (9).

Hot Corner handicapper selection

Under 6 Avalanche-Stars (+100)

Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 2-2, +0.0 units): Goaltender Pavel Francouz is listed as questionable to start for Colorado. His return makes this play more comfortable than if Michael Hutchinson was asked to be the man in the crease again. Anton Khudobin will be back in net for Dallas after Ben Bishop allowed four goals on 19 shots to open Game 5. The previous eight games for the Avalanche have gone over the total, but I expect a low-scoring affair with the upgrades in net, especially if the Stars take the lead. They will look to suffocate the Avalanche like they did in the final two periods of Game 5.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.