Who will be MLB’s home run king, win Cy Young, MVP awards?
Updated March 29, 2021 - 5:05 pm
Bettors dig the long ball.
Among the plethora of baseball futures props offered at Las Vegas sportsbooks, the home run king is a big hitter.
“Every year, we write a ton on that,” Westgate sportsbook manager Randy Blum said. “In a normal full season, we’ll write six figures on the home run pool. We keep it open all season and add guys to it.”
Luke Voit surprisingly led the majors in homers in last year’s shortened season with 22. The Yankees first baseman was a 1,000-1 long shot in the original pool posted at the Westgate that required 150 games for action. But he wasn’t even listed in the home run pool that was reposted for the 60-game schedule.
“You never know with the home run title,” Blum said. “It doesn’t have to be an MVP candidate. You can have a guy hit (.181) like Joey Gallo did last season. But in a given year, he can easily hit 60 homers.”
Gallo, a Bishop Gorman High product, is tied for the 16-1 fifth choice at the Westgate with Juan Soto to win the home run title.
Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr. and 2019 home run king Pete Alonso are the 14-1 co-favorites.
The biggest mover on the board is Teoscar Hernandez, who opened at 500-1 but has been bet down to 50-1 after hitting 16 homers in 50 games last season for the Blue Jays.
The Westgate would lose six figures on Hernandez, whom the book expected to be Toronto’s fourth outfielder after the team signed George Springer.
“He did move ahead of Randal Grichuk on the depth chart,” Blum said. “I still don’t think he’s going to win.”
MVP
Trout is again the prohibitive +175 favorite at the Westgate to win his fourth American League MVP award. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the 9-1 second choice, and Judge and Gleyber Torres are each 10-1 (Judge and Torres are 20-1 at Circa and Guerrero 35-1).
The National League MVP race is much closer, with four 5-1 co-favorites in Soto, Acuna, Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatis Jr.
“The NL, as far as the MVP and Cy Young, seems to be much stronger than the AL, where Trout is always the significant favorite,” Blum said. “There’s never any value on Trout because his odds are always so low.”
Trout is +250 at William Hill.
Cy Young
Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber are the 2-1 co-favorites to win the AL Cy Young, followed by Lucas Giolito (9-1) and Tyler Glasnow (10-1).
In the NL, Jacob deGrom is the 2-1 favorite, followed by Walker Buehler (7-1), Trevor Bauer (8-1), Jack Flaherty (10-1), Yu Darvish (12-1), Max Scherzer (14-1), Max Fried (14-1) and Clayton Kershaw (16-1).
“The AL just doesn’t have the pitching depth the NL has,” Blum said. “We wanted to list at least 40 guys, but it was a struggle to get there in the AL.”
Sharp bets
The Westgate lowered Shohei Ohtani’s AL MVP odds to 16-1 after a sharp bettor placed a wager on him Sunday at 25-1. Ohtani has impressed at the plate and on the mound in spring training, batting .571 with five homers while striking out 14 in eight innings before Monday’s start.
A Westgate bettor previously wagered $20,000 to win $800,000 on the Angels (40-1) to win the World Series.
The Westgate also took sharp bets on Flaherty to win the NL Cy Young and on Corey Seager to win NL MVP. Seager is the 12-1 fifth choice.
“Flaherty didn’t have a great year last year, but he’s got great stuff,” Blum said. “There’s no reason why he shouldn’t bounce back.
“Seager’s a great player. He’s got all the tools. He just needs to stay healthy.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
MLB props
At Westgate
Up to 16-1
Home run title
Mike Trout 14-1
Ronald Acuna Jr. 14-1
Aaron Judge 14-1
Pete Alonso 14-1
Joey Gallo 16-1
Juan Soto 16-1
AL MVP
Mike Trout +175
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 9-1
Gleyber Torres 10-1
Aaron Judge 10-1
DJ LeMahieu 14-1
Shohei Ohtani 16-1
Jose Ramirez 16-1
Alex Bregman 16-1
NL MVP
Mookie Betts 5-1
Fernando Tatis Jr. 5-1
Juan Soto 5-1
Ronald Acuna Jr. 5-1
Corey Seager 12-1
Francisco Lindor 14-1
Christian Yelich 14-1
AL Cy Young
Gerrit Cole 2-1
Shane Bieber 2-1
Lucas Giolito 9-1
Tyler Glasnow 10-1
NL Cy Young
Jacob deGrom 2-1
Walker Buehler 7-1
Trevor Bauer 8-1
Jack Flaherty 10-1
Yu Darvish 12-1
Max Fried 14-1
Max Scherzer 14-1
Clayton Kershaw 16-1