With Super Bowl expected to be close, several prop bets look attractive

When betting propositions on the Super Bowl each year, I avoid anything based simply on the luck factor.

This should be a close game throughout, with New England doing enough on offense to get it done against Seattle’s top-ranked defense. I project the Patriots to win 24-20.

Here are some game and player props — offered at Station Casinos, William Hill and the Westgate Las Vegas sports books — that offer true value in the numbers:

• In which half will more points be scored: Second half and overtime (-½ minus-125)

Look for the teams to feel each other out in the first half, similar to the early rounds of a title fight, and both to make adjustments at halftime. Eventually, the offenses will open up, leading to more points in the second half.

• Team to receive the opening kickoff: Patriots (minus-110)

My educated guess is if the Patriots win the coin toss, they will receive and put the ball in quarterback Tom Brady’s hands. If the Seahawks win the toss, I believe they will defer and start the game on defense.

• Shortest touchdown scored in the game: 1½ yards (Over plus-115)

This is a prop I’ve had success with for years. There may not be many touchdowns in this game, and both defensive fronts are strong, reducing the chance of a score from the 1-yard line. But this prop would be in jeopardy if there is a pass-interference call in the end zone, setting up a first-and-goal from the 1.

• Largest lead in the game: 13½ points (Under plus-150)

I envision this as a close game throughout, so this is solid value to bet against neither team having a 14-point lead.

• Will either team score three straight times? No (plus-155)

Again, this is a bet against a blowout. This could be a tricky one, because three straight scores for one team happens more often than most people realize, but I think we will see a tight game all the way.

• Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes (plus-100)

This is a prop side that has not had much success in recent years, but when calling for a close game, it should be tied at some point, and hopefully in the first half.

• Receptions by Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski: 5½ (Over minus-125)

This opened at minus-110. It’s obvious Gronkowski will be a big part of the Patriots’ attack, and Brady will need to rely on him while targeting him several times. Look for Gronkowski to come up big and exploit his mismatches with the defense.

• Rushing yards by the Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch: 86½ (Over minus-110)

Lynch is a powerful 215-pound runner, hence the “Beast Mode” nickname. Lynch rushed for 1,304 yards in the regular season and 216 yards in two playoff games. He won’t come off the field in a tight game. I still see value in this number, which opened at 82½, and look for him to eclipse this rushing total as my best prop bet.

Las Vegas handicapper Mark Franco (FrancoSports.com) finished 44-40-1 against the spread in this season’s Review-Journal NFL Challenge.