Betting on Mayweather-Pacquiao could reach $80 million

So, who do you like?

It’s a question that has been asked since Feb. 20, the day the Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Manny Pacquiao world welterweight unification title fight scheduled for Saturday was made. If the early betting was any indication, Pacquiao was the clear choice. But as the fight draws near, the money is coming in on “Money.”

Mayweather opened anywhere from minus-250 to minus-300, depending where you shopped. Since then, Pacquiao money has been pouring in. At Station Casinos, it got as low as minus-170 for Mayweather and plus-150 for Pacquiao. But with the fight rapidly approaching, money has been showing for the undefeated Mayweather, who is 47-0 with 26 knockouts.

Things started to turn to Mayweather last week. At the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, Mayweather was back to minus-215 on April 19 with the takeback on Pacquiao at plus-185. And at most books, Mayweather was once again a 2-1 favorite.

But the bigger question is: What will this fight do in terms of handle?

“This fight will be in a class by itself,” Westgate Superbook director Jay Kornegay said. “I think it can do as much as $80 million.”

Because boxing is lumped in with other sports in terms of how much is bet, the figures from the Nevada Gaming Control Board don’t reflect individual fights. Many believe the 1985 middleweight slugfest at Caesars Palace between Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns was the most-bet fight in Nevada history but it’s just a guess.

“I think you’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 million for Mayweather-Pacquiao,” South Point’s Jimmy Vaccaro said. “I don’t think it will surpass a Super Bowl because you have to remember, there’s like 250 ways to bet the Super Bowl with all the prop bets. There’s only so many ways you can bet boxing.”

Wynn’s Johnny Avello also thinks the fight will do well. But not as well as a Super Bowl.

“I can see somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million,” Avello said where Mayweather had opened minus-260 at his book, dropped to as low as minus-185 before going back to minus-215 last week. “It’ll be the biggest fight I’ve ever booked.”

Most big fights don’t attract the large wagers until 24 hours before, after the two fighters have weighed in. But several Las Vegas establishments have already taken five- and six-figure bets on this fight and it might be an indication that a big handle is looming.

“We’ve had a number up on the fight for quite a while and unlike other fights where you don’t get a lot of action until the end, this fight, we’ve had a steady stream of bets,” Avello said. “We had a lot of Pacquiao money early, now we’re seeing Mayweather money show up and I think it’ll be more of the same as we get close to the fight. The Pacquiao fans coming into town will bet Pacquiao and then the Mayweather bettors will come in late with their money.”

Kornegay said: “We’ve had steady action since we put up the number in February. Normally, you get 80 percent of your action the last two days (of a fight). For this fight, we’ve been doing huge numbers from the start. It could be crazy the day of the fight.”

Every sports book in town will have a price on the fight along with round propositions and whether the fight will go the distance, and whether the winner will win by knockout, by decision or have the fight end in a draw. The conspiracy theorists, who believe everything is set up for a rematch, are betting the draw, which at the Westgate was 8-1.

Boxing doesn’t generate anything close to the amount bet on football or basketball. But this fight is different. It’s an event, much like the Kentucky Derby, which will be run earlier in the day Saturday. People who never make a horse racing bet like to put $2 or $5 on a horse just to have a rooting interest. The same may hold true for the fight.

“It just adds to the excitement,” Vaccaro said. “The same people who will bet the Derby will probably bet the fight. It’s like going to the store to buy a pair of socks and you wind up buying a shirt, a tie and a pair of pants. You go into the sports book and you see everything up on the board you’re going to want to sample some of it.”

Contact reporter Steve Carp at scarp@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2913. Follow him on Twitter: @stevecarprj