Thurman predicts Mayweather victory, but ‘Floyd is vulnerable’

Keith Thurman may lay claim to a share of the world welterweight title. But nobody has anointed him king just yet.

That day may be coming. But for this week, Thurman, the reigning World Boxing Association champ, is relegated to fan status. And like millions of others, he’ll be watching when Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao, the current kings of boxing, finally meet in their world welterweight unification title fight Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden.

“I think it’s going to be an interesting fight,” said Thurman, who retained his title March 7 after hammering Robert Guerrero over 12 rounds at the Grand Garden and improving to 25-0 with 21 knockouts. “I believe Floyd is going to win because he hasn’t shown us a reason why he has lost enough to not still be the best pound-for-pound fighter.”

Mayweather is the WBA’s “Super” champion. Thurman, 26, can only hope he can get a shot at a mega-payday with either the 38-year-old Mayweather or the 36-year-old Pacquiao before they leave the sport. Both Mayweather and Pacquiao have said they plan to retire within the next year.

“I would love, love that opportunity,” Thurman said. “If it happens, it happens. But I’m focused on what I do and I’m just going to be at the MGM and enjoy this one.”

While Thurman believes Mayweather will prevail Saturday, he also believes Pacquiao has a very good chance of beating Mayweather if he can do enough things right and convince the judges.

“(Mayweather) is not (Juan Manuel) Marquez. He’s not going to knock Manny out,” Thurman said. “Floyd hasn’t knocked anyone out in a really long time. He’s had problems with his hands over the years and he’s older now. I think he’s trying to preserve his hands to the best of his ability and he throws what I call ‘scoring blows’ — one that’s strong enough to pop the head back and make it clear for the judges to see but not one where you can’t walk through and continue to fight him.

“So Manny has to come prepared to take a few counters, throw those combinations and outwork him. But it would help Manny after he outworks him to step back and not take those counters. If he throws a five-punch combination and he gets hit with a counter, which one of those are the judges going to favor? The right counter by Floyd which looks beautiful every time he throws it? Or Manny’s combinations?”

Thurman believes Pacquiao has an advantage over Mayweather when it comes to quickness.

“I see Manny Pacquiao using his speed,” Thurman said. “We know Mayweather is very crafty. He’s very slippery and he holds. One thing people don’t give him credit for is how he strategically holds and he can break and get back on the outside.

“I’m interested in how Floyd’s going to deal with Manny’s speed and I’m interested in how Manny is going to deal with Floyd’s speed.”

Thurman said Mayweather’s likely to use his right hand to negate Pacquiao’s attack.

“I expect Floyd to pop that right hand right down the pike all night and fire,” he said. “He’s going to use the jab, hit to the solar plexus like Floyd likes to do so he can mix up his power shots. But I expect Floyd to be on his toes, and pop a shot. I don’t expect a lot of combinations out of Floyd but I expect him to move, use a lot of strategic punching and strategic holding and maneuvers to stay out of danger of Manny Pacquiao.”

Thurman said Pacquiao needs to be the volume puncher he has been throughout his career in order to get the upper hand against Mayweather, who is arguably the greatest defensive fighter of his generation and one of the best defensive fighters of all time.

“Manny Pacquiao can throw punches in bunches from some awkward angles and that’s going to benefit him during the fight,” Thurman said. “If Manny wants to win, its going to take a high work rate. Volume, volume, volume. Take the counter, take it.”

Thurman said Pacquiao also needs to take advantage of Mayweather’s being a slow starter.

“Floyd is vulnerable,” Thurman said. “If you watch any of his fights, you’ll see he’s highly vulnerable over the first three rounds and I think that will favor Manny Pacquiao. But Floyd is able to figure out things very quickly. Floyd can normally adjust within three rounds.

“In the Canelo (Alvarez) fight (in September 2013), he was taking risks. Canelo was throwing left hooks that weren’t connecting and if Manny is able to counter himself and land some punches, he can hurt Floyd. Manny has more speed than Canelo, Marcos Maidana or Robert Guerrero. It’s going to be very intriguing.”

Contact reporter Steve Carp at scarp@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2913. Follow him on Twitter: @stevecarprj