5 reasons the 49ers will win Super Bowl LIV
MIAMI — Part of the case for the San Francisco 49ers beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV is built on recent history. Specifically, the New York Giants upsetting Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI.
The game plan the 49ers draw up, which will be similar to what the Giants used, and the efficiency with which they will execute it will help the Vince Lombardi Trophy return to San Francisco.
Here are five reasons the 49ers will win the Super Bowl.
1. The pass rush will get to Mahomes
In both of the Giants’ Super Bowl wins over the Patriots, they were able to put pressure on Brady with just four pass rushers. The pressure consistently rattled Brady and threw him off his rhythm. It enabled the Giants to drop all seven remaining defenders into coverage.
For defensive aficionados, the Giants’ game plan was a work of art. It was so simple, yet so effective. Dominate the battle up front with as few players as possible and own the night.
Fast forward to Super Bowl LIV and the 49ers’ daunting matchup against Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his dazzling array of weapons.
With the dizzying way the Chiefs attack opponents — utilizing Andy Reid’s brilliant play-calling, speedy playmakers and red zone nightmare Travis Kelce at tight end — it’s natural to assume Mahomes will do what he does best: Use his arm talent and his electrifying ability to improvise with his legs and intellect to outscore the 49ers.
Not so fast.
Defensive ends Nick Bosa and Dee Ford and defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, an imposing collection of former first-rounders, can stonewall the run game and attack the quarterback. Buckner and Armstead create a major push from the inside, while Bosa and Ford collapse the flanks.
While Mahomes typically uses inside pressure to his advantage by utilizing his improvisational skills to create constantly moving pass pockets, the athletic ability of Bosa and Ford off the perimeter will nullify that.
2. Mahomes will take a risk and pay for it
When Mahomes looks downfield on pass plays, especially when working in off-schedule situations due to pressure, he won’t be throwing into advantageous cover schemes thinned out by blitz packages that sacrifice manpower for pressure.
The 49ers’ defense is too good at all three levels to make that trade-off. Instead, he’ll be constantly working at a numbers disadvantage trying to squeeze footballs through seven defenders in coverage.
But the risk taker in Mahomes will take one or two chances he shouldn’t, and the 49ers will make him pay with an interception or two. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers take one back for a touchdown.
3. Kyle Shanahan will be disciplined
The San Francisco offense is a bad matchup for a Kansas City defense that, while significantly improved over last season, might not have the adjustment capabilities to keep up with the pressure 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan creates with clever in-game maneuvering.
Shanahan has been in his element during the postseason by adhering to one simple mandate: Take what the defense gives you.
It takes discipline to do what Shanahan did in the NFC championship game against the Green Bay Packers, running the ball 42 times against just eight pass attempts. So many other coaches, out of ego or miscalculation, would have thrown the ball more, even though the Packers’ defense and the success the 49ers had running against it were screaming to keep it on the ground.
It’s a mistake a less disciplined coach would commit. But Shanahan is far too savvy to let ego get the best of him. He remained committed to taking what the Packers gave him, and the result was a blowout win.
4. Garoppolo will be up the challenge
Shanahan is just as liable to throw it 40 times if the Chiefs decide to load up against the run Sunday — which would defy the conventional wisdom that the run game he leaned on against the Packers was some sort of indictment of Jimmy Garoppolo.
The belief Shanahan has in his quarterback will be on display Sunday. Whether the result of the Chiefs’ defensive approach or their ability to defend the run better than Green Bay did, the 49ers will need more from Garoppolo this week than they did in the NFC championship.
Garoppolo will deliver.
5. Playing keep-away
The 49ers understand part of beating Mahomes is parking him on the sideline for long stretches. There is no question they will be in attack mode looking for points at all turns, but they also know the importance of draining the clock to nullify Mahomes and the Chiefs’ fast-strike offense.
Expect play-calling that will maximize ball control and clock management. Tight end George Kittle will be featured prominently in the middle of the field. The run game will be in full effect. The 49ers will rely on efficiency in those situations to avoid turnovers, take maximum advantage of red zone visits and, just as importantly, make Mahomes play spectator for long stretches.
And they will win.
