No other choice but Pats
February 3, 2008 - 10:00 pm
Presumably, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has spent the past two weeks doing more than dodging questions about his team's mysterious injury report and shady spy tactics.
Belichick is bland in interviews, and he might not be a model of morality. But with two weeks to prepare for a big game, it's tough to bet against the NFL's sharpest coach.
The unbeaten Patriots are 12-point favorites over the New York Giants today in Super Bowl XLII at Glendale, Ariz. The line opened at 131/2 at most Las Vegas sports books.
Vegas Insider handicapper Jamie Tursini works off a set of power ratings that make New England a 141/2-point favorite.
"I played New England minus-12, and that's getting great value crossing the key numbers of 13 and 14," Tursini said.
"I am amazed at how the national media and ESPN has been able to convince the public that this will be a close game. Many even have New York winning this one. Good for Patriots backers."
Two months ago, the futures line on the Super Bowl had the AFC team -- obviously projected to be the Patriots -- favored by as many as 16 points over the NFC.
But New England's offensive production steadily declined, and the day after the AFC Championship Game, quarterback Tom Brady was seen in a walking boot to protect his injured right ankle.
"I'm not concerned with Brady's high ankle sprain," Tursini said. "His actions throughout the two weeks leading up to the game are what's important. He would not have been spotted anywhere except the trainer's room if there was reason to be concerned."
The Patriots started 8-0 against the spread and averaged 41.4 points per game during that stretch. They slipped to 2-6 against the spread and averaged 32.3 points over the next eight games.
In the playoffs, when weather conditions worsened, the Patriots failed to cover both games and averaged 26 points. Randy Moss has just two receptions and Brady has thrown three interceptions in the postseason.
In Week 17, New England had to overcome a fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Giants 38-35 at New York. The Giants have won 10 consecutive road games and rolled through the NFC with postseason victories at Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay.
None of those factors cause Tursini (vegasinsider.com) to back off the Patriots.
"In their Week 17 matchup, the final score means very little to me," he said. "When the Patriots decided to play with meaning, they erased a 12-point second-half deficit by scoring 22 straight points in a 15-minute stretch against a Giants defense playing great. The Giants scored a meaningless touchdown with just over a minute to play."
The Giants' strength is their defensive line, anchored by Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Whether they can pressure Brady is a different story.
"When thinking about the Giants' chances to keep this close, their pass rush comes to mind. Arguably, they have the best pass-rushing front four in the NFL," Tursini said. "But dating back to their meeting against the Patriots, they've sacked the quarterback only four times in four games.
"New England has the best pass-blocking offensive line that I've ever seen. They literally have given Tom Brady six to eight seconds of protection throughout the season."
If New York defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo tries a blitzing scheme when his unit can't maintain a consistent rush, Tursini said "that will bury an average Giants secondary even more."
The edge in the running game could go to the Giants, with their tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, but that aspect of their attack might also suffer if the Patriots take an early lead.
New York's top playmaker, wide receiver Plaxico Burress, is likely to see double coverage most of the game, which could force quarterback Eli Manning out of his comfort zone.
"Offensively, the Giants just don't have what it takes to keep up," Tursini said. "Burress is a good wideout, but he's not a game-breaker. This is where Belichick's mastery comes into play.
"In the three Super Bowls the Patriots have won, they succeeded in targeting one offensive player and reducing his effectiveness. Against the Rams, it was running back Marshall Faulk. Against the Panthers, it was wideout Steve Smith. Against the Eagles, it was running back Brian Westbrook. Here it will be Burress.
"If the Giants fall behind early, the run will be abandoned, and that plays into the hands of the ball-hawking secondary of the Patriots."
New England has won each of its three Super Bowls by three points. Tursini anticipates a much bigger margin against New York.
"I expect about a 20-point win for the Patriots," he said.
Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2907.
SUPER BOWL OPINIONS The New England Patriots are 12-point favorites over the New York Giants and the total is 54 in today's game. A survey of Super Bowl opinions from Review-Journal staff members and Las Vegas handicappers and sports book directors: Mark Anderson, Review-Journal: Patriots, 35-17 You can't give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare. The spread would be even greater if Tom Brady was completely healthy. John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas: Patriots, 38-10 I'm not sure this Giants team is capable of winning. They have to play the perfect game and catch the Patriots on a bad day. Brian Blessing, Las Vegas Sports Consultants: Patriots, 42-17 There are many reasons to side with the Patriots. Most important is that Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare and Tom Brady has a big edge over Eli Manning. Buzz Daly, Buzzdaly.com: Giants, 30-27 There is a weak link that could hinder the Patriots: their defense. If there is a team capable, physically and psychologically, of winning a shootout with the Pats, it's the Giants. Joseph D'Amico, Allamericansports.info: Patriots, 34-23 Two well-balanced squads keep this interesting, but the machine of New England prevails. Todd Dewey, Review-Journal: Patriots, 49-17 Plaxico Burress at least had the losing score right in his prediction. The Patriots regain their prior form and steamroll the Giants for the first 19-0 season in NFL history. Mark Franco, Vegasinsider.com: Patriots, 34-27 The Patriots will get their points but the Giants should score enough to stay in the game and get the cover. Ed Graney, Review-Journal: Patriots, 35-21 I have proven time and again to stink at picking games, so this means you should bet your entire savings on the Giants. Joe Hawk, Review-Journal: Patriots, 41-14 Tom Brady, fourth Super Bowl appearance. Eli Manning, first Super Bowl appearance. 'Nuff said. Adam Hill, Review-Journal: Patriots, 38-17 Bill Belichick with two weeks to prepare against an opponent he already has seen is a recipe for disaster for a Giants team that has exceeded expectations. Allen Leiker, Review-Journal: Patriots, 42-17 Bill Belichick gets two weeks to prepare for a team he played in the final game of the regular season. That's too much time for the game's best coach, who might even force a smile after this one. Lisa Perry, Review-Journal: Patriots, 34-17 New England, led by Tom Brady, has had the ball bounce in its favor all season. The Patriots will complete a perfect season. Micah Roberts, Sunset Station: Patriots, 49-20 All the great teams from the past that rolled into the Super Bowl and were expected to be dominant, they took care of business, and this game is no different. Dave Tuley, ViewFromVegas.com: Patriots, 27-24 The Giants showed they could trade scores with the Patriots in the regular-season finale. The Patriots win but don't cover. Robert Walker, MGM Mirage: Patriots, 55-27 I'll make a statement with the Patriots. They have not been able to play on a fast track and a nice field in a long time, so I think you'll see their best effort. Jeff Wolf, Review-Journal: Giants, 31-28 There is too much pressure on the Patriots to finish unbeaten. The Giants will be more relaxed and it will pay off. Matt Youmans, Review-Journal: Patriots, 38-24 New England's defense is aging and vulnerable, but Tom Brady and his wide receivers are almost unstoppable. Straight-up totals: Patriots 15, Giants 2 Against the spread: Patriots 12, Giants 5