Pro bettor Rufus Peabody, others, share best Super Bowl props
Wagering on Super Bowl props will always hold a special place in Rufus Peabody’s heart. And bankroll.
Before Peabody became one of the world’s most respected professional sports bettors, he had just graduated from Yale and was working at Las Vegas Sports Consultants in 2009 when he hit the jackpot on props for Super Bowl XLIII between the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
“That was my first big hit,” said Peabody, 34. “In those days, I was grinding, betting $100 or $200 a game. I borrowed $10,000 from a friend and had about a $10,000 bankroll, and someone invested $40,000 in me and I got a cut of that.”
Peabody cashed a big ticket on Gary Russell to score the first touchdown at 20-1 and said he returned 40 percent on his investment in that game to kick-start his career as a pro sports bettor.
In what has become an annual tradition for Peabody (@RufusPeabody), he’s placed hundreds of thousands of dollars in wagers on hundreds of Super Bowl LIV props at sportsbooks in Las Vegas and New Jersey.
“It’s probably the most money I have on any one event decided on one day,” he said. “There are so many different options.”
Peabody, fellow pro sports bettors Jeff Whitelaw and Cris Zeniuk and pro handicapper Mark Franco shared their best prop bets.
From Peabody
Will there be a missed extra point kick? Yes +300
“Here’s one I bet that’s kind of a public bet. But I actually feel there’s value on it this year. It has to do with the fact that since extra points were moved back in 2015, you’re seeing more extra points missed.
“These are good kickers, but it’s a high total game and they’re expecting a lot of touchdowns. Even if each extra point is 95 percent to be made, if you have six TDs without a two-point conversion, it’s only 73.5 percent that they won’t miss an extra point.
“The 32-yard kick really does change it. You go from a 99.5 percent league average (on PATs) to under 94 percent. They’re both high probabilities, but when you multiply it out, it has a huge effect. If there’s any wind or precipitation, it looks even better.”
Under on Mecole Hardman props
Peabody got better numbers, but he bet on the Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver to go under 1½ receptions (-130) and under 23½ receiving yards. He also wagered on Kendrick Bourne (-½, -110) to finish with more receiving yards than Hardman.
“Hardman’s a home run threat, but it’s very likely he’ll have nothing or almost nothing. A lot of his numbers were accumulated when Sammy Watkins or Tyreek Hill were out with injuries. In games when Watkins and Hill were healthy, he hasn’t had more than two catches.
“Hardman could make me look very foolish easily with one catch. But I’m betting on the most probable outcome.”
From Whitelaw, who has wagered on about 50 props for more than $100,000:
Total number of 49ers to have a pass reception: Under 7 -160
“They really don’t spread the ball out. The last game, they only had six completions, and the game before that, they only had 11. It will be really hard for them to get to eight. That figures to be a win or a push.”
San Francisco hasn’t had more than seven pass catchers since Nov. 17, and it has topped that number only twice in its last 13 games.
Under on Jimmy Garoppolo props
Whitelaw, who likes the Niners and under in the game, bet on Garoppolo to go under on passing attempts (29½), completions (19½) and yards (239½). In two playoff games this year, Garoppolo is 17 of 27 for 208 yards.
“My thought is they’re going to run a lot and play ball control and shorten the game. On that same premise, I like the 49ers to have more time of possession (-140), and I like Frisco’s rushing yards over (235½).”
From Zeniuk (@lasvegascris)
Chiefs to record first sack +115
“Mahomes is more elusive (than Garoppolo). Getting plus money seems like value as (the) sack per pass attempt edge (lies) with Kansas City.”
Tyreek Hill rushing yards: Over 5½
“Idea is to get fastest NFL player in space. It may take just one run to win this.”
From Franco (Francosports.com)
Total field goals made by both teams: Over 3½ +110
“The 49ers’ defense should somewhat slow the Chiefs’ offense and force them to kick at least two field goals. The 49ers have five field goals in the playoffs, and I except them to have at least two.”
Longest touchdown scored: Over 44½
“The Chiefs had 20 plays this season of 40 yards or more, and the 49ers also have explosive playmakers.”
Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes -110
“In what I expect to be a close game, there is value in the game being tied at any point.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
