Super Bowl props generate fun — and profit

The end of a long NFL season is prime time for value shoppers at Las Vegas sports books. Some of the year's best betting opportunities can be found by sifting through the hundreds of Super Bowl propositions offered by the books.

The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 5 points over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and soon we'll find out if Colts quarterback Peyton Manning wins his second championship. But another game has already kicked off for many bettors who are just as serious about winning.

The prop bets have been on the board for about 10 days, and the key is finding the edge, because the books are more vulnerable than ever at this time of the year.

There is no true comparison to any other sport in the value offered this week.

A normal Saturday college basketball menu is comparable only because there are so many games. With more than 100 games on one day, and only two days to update ratings for more than 200 teams, there are always bound to be five or six faulty lines. But usually it takes one of the sharp betting groups to ferret out the mistakes.

The telling sign that a sports book is aware of its exposure is the betting limits placed on the general public. The most solid lines are offered with the highest limits -- such as the standard NFL line, the most sound line in the world. The areas that are open to more severe liability -- meaning the books don't always win -- are always kept at minimal limits.

The lowest per-game limits offered by most books are totals, such as college football and basketball, which are generally offered at a range of $500 to $1,000. Totals are statistically the lowest hold percentage most books have in their category analysis breakdown.

The Super Bowl will generate thousands of dollars more on each side of a proposition bet than any college total, but the limit for each prop stays in the same range because the books are in a vulnerable situation by extending the betting menu to such extremes.

So why would a bookmaker, whose mandate is to limit risk and liability and protect company funds, offer so many options that could offer the house less than maximum protection?

Basically, it's all about image, respectability and publicity of a property brand name or theme.

The last thing a Las Vegas sports book wants is a reputation for having the poorest selection of Super Bowl props in the city. This is a book's time to shine and show there is no need to go anywhere else -- everything you want is right here.

• • •

The Las Vegas Hilton has been the industry leader for Super Bowl props for much of the past decade. The staff, headed by sports book director Jay Kornegay, came over from the Imperial Palace, where Kornegay's props were immensely popular.

Most books take in 15 to 30 percent of their overall Super Bowl action on props, but the Hilton's split is near 50 percent.

"We have tried to take things up a notch each year by adding a few more to give the guests a full menu of options," Kornegay said. "It's kind of like the Cheesecake Factory menu where there is bound to be something you like."

It wasn't that long ago when the term "proposition" wasn't even part of the betting vocabulary. Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books, has seen a lot of changes in Las Vegas, one being the advent and growth of prop bets.

"The first time I heard the term 'prop' relating to betting sports was from the Las Vegas Club's Mel Exber in the late 1970s," Vaccaro said. "He said it was an option tied to a game that should be fair for both sides. At that time we were doing just a few point-spread props that seemed to generate good two-way action. The people liked it, so we did more."

Later, the publicity generated through the props took off nationally for something that wasn't even related to sports.

"(Former book director) Sonny Reizner had his 'Who shot J.R.?' prop from the 'Dallas' TV show, and I think that publicity, along with more casinos putting in sports books and with all the big parties, gave birth to the Super Bowl props we know today," Vaccaro said.

From there it became a competitive game between books looking to gain attention and create visits to their bet shops.

In 1986, Caesars Palace posted a prop for the Chicago Bears-New England Patriots Super Bowl asking whether Bears lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry would score a touchdown.

After the game, in which Perry plowed in for a touchdown on a handoff, there was a great deal of national publicity about how Las Vegas books took a beating on the prop.

At the time, props were still a limited offering.

"Many of the books around town were offering 10 to 20 props for the Super Bowl, but this current generation has really done a great job in elevating them to another level," Vaccaro said. "Jay Kornegay has done a phenomenal job in that area."

Kornegay said wide-scale Super Bowl player props stemmed from experimenting with a 1990 NBA Finals game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Detroit Pistons while he and his staff were at the Imperial Palace.

"We were making over-under point totals for Magic Johnson and other players for fun," he said. "Some of the (bettors) on the other side of the counter overheard us talking and asked us to put the number up so they could bet it, so we did and got good money on both sides.

"From there, we started using players' stats for several players in the Super Bowl and found a lot of interest."

Kornegay found that props helped make the games more interesting for his clientele.

"During that era of the Super Bowl, we had the NFC side blowing out everyone from the AFC, and we wanted to have plenty of things available for the game to keep people involved and intrigued for all four quarters regardless of what the score was," Kornegay said.

A bettor can now tie his knowledge of English Premier League soccer, NBA, NHL and college basketball events into something going on in the Super Bowl box score.

"The props are definitely here to stay," Vaccaro said.

• • •

Some Super Bowl props dealing with players and team statistics are more mainstream than ever thanks to the Internet and the huge number of people who play fantasy football.

It doesn't take sharp money to know how many yards or touchdowns running back Joseph Addai regularly gets within the Colts' offense. The average Joe, because of fantasy football, has a calculated guess that will be accurate with a much higher degree of knowledge than wagering on the game itself.

Someone who shops around early has a huge edge in finding prop numbers that might be weak, whether a sports book opened a raw untested number straight from a consulting group or made the number with a bookmaker's strong opinion.

There are opportunities to beat both sides at different books, without laying much juice, and to have a huge opportunities to "middle" the prop.

Bettors take middle shots every year, and it's a free roll in many cases. They don't even need an opinion on who'll win the game. All they need is gas in the car to drive from book to book, hoping to find a golden middle opportunity. For instance, a running back prop with a 10-yard window might give them a good chance to win both their over and under bets.

"Usually we see that first rush where players are playing both sides at different properties once everyone opens them up," Kornegay said. "Eventually we get to a point closer to the weekend of the game where the numbers become a market number throughout the city where they're relatively the same."

To be fair and not give the wrong impression, the books do very well with the props just because of sheer volume of wagers. But it's virtually impossible for the books to be on top of everything for the entire two-week stretch, beginning with the opening number to how a number is moved, and that's where bettors have a significant edge.

The extended menu of propositions, plus the attraction of a marquee matchup in the Saints and Colts, gives Nevada a strong chance to top the 2006 Super Bowl-record handle of $94.5 million, despite the poor economic climate.

Sports books are one area where Nevada casinos haven't seen significant drops in handle, compared with table games and slots. It might be a long shot, but I would take over $90 million at 2-1 odds with the expectation that the state's books generate an impressive handle for this Super Bowl.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, is a Las Vegas-based writer who contributes to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.