Super Bowl shapes up as Pros vs. Joes showdown at sportsbooks
Before the Raiders routed the Washington Redskins 38-9 to win their last Super Bowl title in 1984, handicapper Hank Goldberg got an early indication of the game plan during dinner with late Raiders owner Al Davis and late oddsmaker Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder.
“(Washington quarterback Joe) Theismann was in the restaurant and Al said — I’ll clean it up for you — ‘We’re going to hit that guy on every play, even if we have to take penalties, and let him think about it,’” Goldberg said. “He thought being physical would force him into mistakes, and he was so right. They beat the hell out of Theismann in that game.”
Goldberg (Vegasinsider.com), a contributor to ESPN’s “Daily Wager” show, expects the 49ers defense to harass Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in similar fashion in Sunday’s Super Bowl.
“The defense is going to show Mahomes looks he hasn’t seen before and frustrate him and stop him from running,” he said.
Goldberg, who went 48-34-3 ATS (58.5 percent) to place third this season in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, likes San Francisco to cover as a 1-point underdog to Kansas City and expects the game to go under the total of 54½.
Those are the preferred sharp sides on the Super Bowl, which is shaping up as a battle at Las Vegas sportsbooks between pro bettors and the betting public.
Total correlation
“It seems like the public is on Kansas City and the sharps seem to be on Frisco, and the public seems to be on the over and sharps seem to be on the under,” pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said. “It is sort of correlated. If you told me San Francisco wins, I think the game will go under. If you tell me Kansas City wins, I think it might go over.”
Whitelaw likes the 49ers and under because of their superior running game and defense. San Francisco rushed for 285 yards against the Packers in the NFC title game, and Whitelaw has Green Bay’s run defense rated much higher than Kansas City.
“Green Bay knew they were running and still couldn’t stop them,” he said. “The 49ers have a great offensive line. There’s no reason to think they’re not going to be able to run again.”
Westgate sportsbook vice president Jay Kornegay, who won the RJ Challenge with a 50-33-2 ATS record (60.2 percent), also likes the Niners.
“I’ve really liked this 49ers team the whole year. They just seem to have that mojo about them and the physicality to win the championship,” he said. “The way the 49ers play offensively will really benefit their defense in controlling Mahomes. It’s the perfect formula.
“People say, ‘Well, the Chiefs stopped (Titans running back Derrick) Henry.’ But I think the 49ers’ running game is a little more sophisticated than what Tennessee brought to the table.”
Handicapper Doug Fitz, who took second in the RJ Challenge with a 49-34-2 ATS mark (59 percent), also is siding with San Francisco based on a simple Super Bowl system he’s followed for years.
“I just play the underdog if the underdog has the better overall defense. That’s all there is to it. And San Francisco fits that by a mile,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “It’s fading the flashy offensive team.”
Fitz pointed to Denver’s victory over Carolina in Cam Newton’s MVP season as an example and also noted Seattle’s win over Denver in the season Peyton Manning threw a record 55 TD passes.
CG Technology sportsbook oddsmaker Dave Sharapan also said the Chiefs-49ers matchup reminds him of that Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl in 2014.
“There’s a lot of bets coming in on the offensive team — and the face of the league in Mahomes — when it looks clear to us on this side of the counter that the best unit is San Francisco’s defense,” he said. “Just like Seattle’s defense was overlooked in that game.”
Leaning under
The total had climbed to 55 at several books early in Super Bowl week amid heavy action on the over before settling at a consensus 54½.
“I do lean to the under. I make the total 52,” pro sports bettor Rufus Peabody said. “If it gets to 55 or 55½, I’ll bet the under.
“But let’s say I miss out on 55, it’s not the end of the world. A low-scoring game will be good for my prop bets, in general.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
