The road to Las Vegas: How each AFC team can reach Super Bowl

The path to the Super Bowl in Las Vegas will begin in an unexpected place.

Saturday’s AFC playoff doubleheader opens with the long-shot Houston Texans hosting the Cleveland Browns in a wild-card game.

Houston entered the season as a more likely choice to compete for the first overall draft pick than to make the postseason, much less win its division and play at home. But rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was a revelation, and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans has his team far ahead of schedule.

It’s still going to take a lot for the Texans to win the AFC and punch their ticket to Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium.

Here is the first of our series of weekly looks at what each of the AFC teams has to do to be the one to make that trip:

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4 record, +130 odds to win the AFC at Caesars Sportsbook): The Ravens will enjoy a week off as a reward for a dominant season in which they pulled away from the field in the the conference and delivered a late-season message with a convincing road win against the overall favorite in San Francisco. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has all but wrapped up his second MVP award and will now look to prove he can win in the postseason. Baltimore can sit back and wait for whichever team is the lowest seed to advance this weekend.

2. Buffalo Bills (11-6, +250): Buffalo is technically the hottest team in the league, having won five straight to not only make a somewhat surprising run to the playoffs but also to an AFC East crown. Yet the Bills still haven’t looked overly impressive. Josh Allen still turns the ball over a lot even when he’s not alternating spectacular runs and passes with stunningly inaccurate throws and baffling decisions. Buffalo has surged late in the season on the strength of timely big plays on defense and special teams and will be a tough out. The Bills start with an interesting matchup. Usually brutal weather in Buffalo is an advantage, but it may not be so much of an edge against the Steelers. A potential showdown with Kansas City, which has emerged as a true rival, looms in the divisional round.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 5-1): It’s another division title and another playoff appearance for Kansas City, though this isn’t the same old Chiefs. This version has used an outstanding defense to cover for an offense that can’t seem to get out of its own way. There is always a chance the Chiefs could figure it out, however. Any team with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce is going to be a tough out in the playoffs.

4. Houston Texans (10-7, 25-1): The AFC South was expected to be Jacksonville’s division to lose, but a combination of the Texans overachieving and the Jaguars collapsing has led Houston a division crown and a seat at the table in the AFC playoffs. Stroud looks like a star and has elevated the play of his teammates, but the lack of postseason experience could be a factor here. The first challenge is a tough one, as Cleveland pass rusher Myles Garrett will look to make life miserable for Stroud.

5. Cleveland Browns (11-6, 10-1): Cleveland has an elite defense, and 38-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco has breathed life into the passing attack. Flacco is also a former Super Bowl MVP, so he knows how to win the postseason. It’s not surprising the Browns are favored on the road in the opener, but the path will get tougher from there. It’s likely their divisional round game would be against their bitter rivals, the Ravens, in Baltimore. Be wary of reading too much into Cleveland’s 36-22 victory over Houston on Dec. 24. While Flacco threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns, Stroud did not play.

6. Miami Dolphins (11-6, 10-1): The narrative about the Dolphins is a simple one. Mike McDaniel’s team beats up on weak opponents and melts under pressure in more difficult matchups. It’s tough to argue against the evidence. Miami is 1-5 with a minus-91 point differential against playoff teams. The Dolphins will have to beat three playoff teams in a row to reach Las Vegas, starting with a brutal road game in what is expected to be a frigid Kansas City. The Dolphins will also have to do it without as many as nine starters, but receiver Tyreek Hill has the ability to take over a game as much or more than any non-quarterback.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 60-1): Somehow, some way, coach Mike Tomlin has taken his team to the playoffs again. The offense isn’t going to strike fear in anyone and the defense might not either with pass rusher T.J. Watt out with a knee injury, but this is an organization that just finds ways to win. Yet these long odds to win the conference do appear justified. A major upset win over Buffalo would set up a date with the Ravens in Baltimore. Some reward.

Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.