Preview of UFC 251 main card fights in Abu Dhabi

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC 251 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi, with picks from the Review-Journal’s Adam Hill and Heidi Fang:

Kamaru Usman (16-1) vs. Jorge Masvidal (35-13)

Class: For Usman’s welterweight title

Line: Usman -240

Storyline: This is one of those rare occasions when a main event falls apart a week out and the replacement headliner is even better. Masvidal and Usman have a tumultuous history, and Masvidal has entered the very small fraternity of UFC stars with crossover appeal. He brings a whole new set of eyeballs to this fight, which could end up being a very good thing for Usman. The champion has been dominant throughout his time in the UFC, and his analytics make him look almost untouchable. Yet he still doesn’t really move the needle. A strong performance where he dispatches Masvidal, perhaps the fighter of the year in 2019, in front of a large viewing audience could put him over the top. He will be wise to utilize his wrestling. Usman attempts .7 takedowns per minute,and while Masvidal stops takedowns at an 80 percent clip, Usman is elite at getting opponents to the mat where he can neutralize almost everything Masvidal wants to do in this fight. The short training camp can’t help Masvidal in that regard, nor will it help his cardio, which defending takedowns will certainly be a strain.

Hill’s pick: Usman by decision

Fang’s pick: Masvidal by second-round knockout

Alexander Volkanovski (21-1) vs. Max Holloway (21-5)

Class: For Volkanovski’s featherweight title

Line: Volkanovski -225

Storyline: Holloway was a dominant champion with 14 straight wins in the weight class when he was dethroned by Volkanovski in December. Holloway just couldn’t figure him out and was brutalized by leg kicks early in the fight, which slowed down his attack in the later rounds when he typically takes over. It was a masterful game plan and performance by Volkanovski, who figures to try to do much of the same with a few new wrinkles mixed in to keep Holloway off balance. Holloway has to do something to change it up, and it’s almost certain he will have a plan to do so. Fighters don’t go on the kind of run he had without possessing a level of resiliency, and the Hawaiian is no exception. It may not be enough if Volkanovski controls the range as brilliantly as he did in the last matchup, but the line is pivotal to analyzing how to bet this matchup. Holloway was about a minus-230 favorite the first time around. Now Volkanovski is laying a similar price. That may present way too much value on Holloway to pass up.

Hill’s pick: Holloway by decision

Fang’s pick: Volkanovski by decision

Petr Yan (14-1) vs. Jose Aldo (28-6)

Class: For vacant bantamweight title

Line: Yan -230

Storyline: Yan, a winner of nine straight overall and 6-0 in the UFC, was the most logical next challenger for Henry Cejudo, but Cejudo vacated the belt and announced his retirement in May. If Holloway isn’t the greatest featherweight champion in history, that honor would fall to Jose Aldo. The Brazilian held the belt when the UFC incorporated the 145-pound division in 2010 and held it until Conor McGregor knocked him out with one punch in 2015. He went 3-3 over his next six fights, with the losses coming to Volkanovski and Holloway twice, prompting a drop down to 135 pounds. His only appearance at the weight was a controversial decision loss to Marlon Moraes in December that UFC officials so disagreed with that he was put in this fight anyway. This should look like a boxing match. Yan is the rare pressure striker who somehow maintains fairly solid defensive discipline. He will look to constantly come forward, so Aldo will have to establish his jab to halt Yan’s aggression and make sure to stay off the wall where Yan is so good at putting together combinations.

Hill’s pick: Yan by second-round knockout

Fang’s pick: Yan by third-round knockout

Jessica Andrade (20-7) vs. Rose Namajunas (9-4)

Class: Women’s strawweight

Line: Namajunas -215

Storyline: The rematch of former women’s strawweight champions has a ton of intrigue after the way the first meeting played out in May 2019, which was a showcase of what both fighters do well. Namajunas was using her length and speed effectively to pour it on Andrade a bit in the early going, but Andrade showed what being the strongest fighter in the division can mean as she rallied to win the belt. She started landing leg kicks and slams to start to stem the tide before knocking out Namajuna by slamming her to the mat in a wild finish to a very entertaining fight. Andrade was a slight favorite in that fight and now finds herself as a decisive underdog despite winning the first battle. There could be plenty of value on her here. Namajunas hasn’t fought since that night as she contemplated retirement at 28 years old. She now says she has been called back to the game. Andrade lost the belt to Weili Zhang in August and has been on the sideline ever since. The winner has the inside track on a title bout with Zhang.

Hill’s pick: Andrade by decision

Fang’s pick: Namajunas by decision

Amanda Ribas (9-1) vs. Paige VanZant (8-4)

Class: Women’s flyweight

Line: Ribas -850

Storyline: There really isn’t much of a secret to the matchmaking here. VanZant is a massive star whose name far outshines her actual ability inside the cage. She is on the last fight of her contract and doesn’t appear to have much intention of signing a new deal, so the UFC is essentially using her to try to build someone else’s brand off her name. Enter Ribas. The 26-year-old Brazilian is personable and extremely talented, winning all three of her fights in the UFC. She is being handed VanZant on a silver platter here, and the oddsmakers are making no secret about how they believe the fight will play out. To VanZant’s credit, she is incredibly tough and has proven dangerous at times. This is just a bit too much of an ask for the 26-year-old reality show star in what could be her final mixed martial arts bout.

Hill’s pick: Ribas by first-round submission

Fang’s pick: Ribas by second-round knockout

Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on Twitter.