These 6 players rode the NFL draft roller coaster

When draft analysts put out mock drafts, most come with a set of expectations that a player will be drafted within a certain range.

Pundits may not always be correct, but many have connections to NFL front office personnel, and that informs the decisions they make.

So when players rise or fall below where they’re expected to be selected, it often makes for at least an awkward television shot — the most famous of which is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers sitting in the green room waiting to be selected throughout the first round in 2005.

Here are six players who over the last 10 years defied the analysts’ expectations.

RISERS

Carson Wentz

Quarterback, North Dakota State

Drafted: No. 2 overall in 2016, Eagles

Entering the 2016 pre-draft process, there wasn’t much known about Wentz — a quarterback out of an FCS program. It was not until the Senior Bowl in January that he began to open the eyes of NFL talent evaluators.

But even after that impressive performance, he was regarded as only a mid-first round pick. It wasn’t until after the NFL scouting combine and Wentz’s pro day that he started to shoot to the top of analysts’ draft boards. Once the Rams and Eagles traded up to the top of the first round in mid-April, the world knew two quarterbacks would go No. 1 and No. 2. The Eagles picked Wentz second and after four seasons have to be pleased with the choice.

Baker Mayfield

Quarterback, Oklahoma

Drafted: No. 1 overall in 2018, Browns

Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy during his third season at Oklahoma. But he still was not thought of as the best quarterback in the draft, with most analysts predicting USC quarterback Sam Darnold would go No. 1 to Cleveland. Mayfield was routinely predicted to go as far down as No. 6.

But John Dorsey, the Browns general manager at the time, was convinced Mayfield was the right choice. Mayfield’s rookie year was a success. He set an NFL rookie record with 27 touchdown passes. But Mayfield took a step back in 2019. The Browns went 6-10 and he threw 21 interceptions.

Clelin Ferrell

Defensive end, Clemson

Drafted: No. 4 overall in 2019, Raiders

With Ferrell not known as a premier edge rusher, analysts routinely predicted he would go to teams in the bottom half of the first round in the lead-up to the 2019 draft. But the Raiders surprised the masses and took Ferrell at No. 4 — over Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen, who went at No. 7 to the Jaguars.

The Raiders said they picked Ferrell that high in part because of his character, which was exemplary during his time at Clemson. But after registering only 4½ sacks and eight tackles for loss as a rookie, Ferrell has clear room for improvement.

FALLERS

Johnny Manziel

Quarterback, Texas A&M

Drafted: No. 22 overall in 2014, Browns

When Manziel decided to leave Texas A&M after a pair of electric seasons as the program’s starting quarterback, there were expectations he’d be a high first-round pick. The 2012 Heisman Trophy winner, Manziel lead Texas A&M to bowl victories in consecutive seasons.

Manziel’s character was such a concern that the Browns didn’t end up selecting him with their early pick in the first round, as many expected. Instead, Manziel was left to wait until No. 22. The Browns released “Johnny Football” after only two seasons and eight starts — making him one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history.

Laremy Tunsil

Offensive tackle, Mississippi

Drafted: No. 13 overall in 2016, Dolphins

Before the Rams and Eagles traded up to Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, to select quarterbacks, Tunsil was thought of as the potential top pick in the 2016 draft class. He was a two-time first-team All-SEC honoree and cemented himself as someone who should be a top pick with a strong performance at the combine and his pro day.

But on draft night, 10 minutes before the first round was set to start, a video of Tunsil wearing a gas mask and smoking a substance — presumably marijuana — from a bong surfaced on Tunsil’s Twitter account. While Tunsil and his agent claimed the account was hacked, Tunsil still slid to No. 13, where the Dolphins picked him.

He fared well for Miami, starting 44 games in three seasons before being traded to the Texans.

La’el Collins

Offensive tackle, LSU

Drafted: Undrafted, signed by the Cowboys in 2015

Collins had perhaps the worst slide in draft history. He went from being a likely top-10 selection to undrafted in 2015. He began to slide when he was slated to talk to police in Louisiana about the shooting death of a former girlfriend who was pregnant at the time of her death. Collins was not considered a suspect, but even talking with police made teams nervous about spending a high pick on him.

Through his agents, Collins threatened to sit out the 2015 season and re-enter the 2016 draft if a team chose him later than the third round. No team did, making Collins available to sign with with any team as a free agent. He signed with the Cowboys a few days after the conclusion of the draft. He’s since started 61 games for Dallas and signed a five-year contract extension with the club in September 2019.