AFC team-by-team betting breakdown: Contender or pretender?

“Dr. Alan” Dumond is a two-time top-five finisher in the Westgate SuperContest.

The Wizardraceandsports.com handicapper analyzes all 16 AFC teams, designating each squad as a contender or pretender.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs appeared to be on their way to breaking the Super Bowl loser jinx last season before losing to the Bengals in overtime at home in the AFC Championship game. But there is no shame in that. Coach Andy Reid has brought a winning culture to Kansas City. In the four years since quarterback Patrick Mahomes took over, the Chiefs have won at least 12 games each season, became the first team to host four straight AFC title games and appeared in two Super Bowls, winning one. The Chiefs shouldn’t see a drop-off. The departures of receiver Tyreek Hill and safety Tyrann Mathieu will hurt. But as long as Reid and Mahomes are together, the Chiefs will remain a contender.

Los Angeles Chargers: Rookie coach Brandon Staley guided the Chargers to a winning record last season (9-8) and narrowly missed the playoffs, losing their finale to the Raiders in overtime. The results could have been better had Staley followed a couple of basic time-honored football principles — that you don’t have to go for it on every fourth down and that you practice proper clock management. The Chargers have found their franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. If Staley can eliminate the coaching blunders, the Chargers will be a contender.

Denver Broncos: Eleven. That’s the number of starting quarterbacks the Broncos have had since Hall of Famer Peyton Manning retired after helping Denver win the 2016 Super Bowl. New starting QB Russell Wilson, acquired from the Seattle Seahawks, will be the 12th man. After three losing seasons, the Broncos fired coach Vic Fangio. Taking over will be rookie coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was the Packers’ offensive coordinator the past three seasons. Denver’s defense should be stout, and the addition of Wilson makes the Broncos a contender.

Raiders: Resilient. No word better describes the 2021 Raiders. Coach Jon Gruden resigned after inappropriate emails he had sent were made public. Wideout Henry Ruggs was released after being charged with DUI in a fatal car crash. Special teams coach Rich Bisaccia, who had no NFL head coaching experience, was named interim coach. The Raiders still managed to win 10 games and secure their first playoff berth since 2017. General manager Mike Mayock was fired, and new GM Dave Ziegler hired former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach. The Raiders made two huge offseason acquisitions in receiver Davante Adams and pass rusher Chandler Jones. The Raiders are a contender.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Thirteen seconds. That was the time left when the Bills took a three-point lead over the Chiefs in last season’s divisional round playoff game. That turned out to be too much time to give Mahomes as Kansas City tied the game and won in overtime. The Bills are the favorites to win the Super Bowl, their season win total is 11½ and they’re favored in 16 of 17 games. Buffalo’s high-powered offense, led by QB Josh Allen, gets all the headlines. But its defense was a bigger story, as it led the league in fewest points allowed (18.3 ppg) and fewest yards allowed (289.2 ypg). Contender.

New England Patriots: Coach Bill Belichick got knocked down in 2020 after the departure of QB Tom Brady, going 7-9. But Belichick got back up off the canvas last season, and New England went 10-7 with rookie Mac Jones under center. Oddsmakers are neutral on the Patriots’ chances to have another winning season, as their win total is 8½. We are more bullish on the Patriots than the oddsmakers. Contender.

Miami Dolphins: Coach Brian Flores was fired after guiding Miami to a 9-8 record last season. In steps rookie coach Mike McDaniel, the 49ers’ offensive coordinator last season. Miami is committed to QB Tua Tagavailoa and acquired Hill to give him a much-needed big-play receiver. Tagavailoa has been injury prone, and his play has been inconsistent. The Dolphins defense was solid last season and returns mostly intact. The uncertainty around McDaniel and Tagavailoa makes the Dolphins a pretender.

New York Jets: The Jets won the draft. Now they have to start winning games. New York went 4-13 last season under rookie coach Robert Saleh and hasn’t had a winning season since 2015. The defense was shredded en route to giving up the most points (29.6 ppg) and yards (397.6 ypg) in the NFL. QB Zach Wilson had a disappointing rookie season. It’s doubtful that Saleh can turn around the losing culture in his second year. Pretender.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals: After a 4-11-1 last-place finish in 2020, Cincinnati won the AFC North with a 10-7 record before winning the AFC title and making its first Super Bowl appearance since 1989. The main reason for the dramatic turnaround is QB Joe Burrow, who has an explosive weapon in Ja’Marr Chase, the 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Since 1994, only one Super Bowl losing team has made it back the following year. But as long as they have Burrow behind center, they are a contender.

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens missed the playoffs last season and finished with their first losing record since 2015. The defense was ravaged by injuries and finished last in the league in passing yards allowed (278.9 ypg). Former MVP QB Lamar Jackson missed five games because of injury. Coach John Harbaugh has built a winning culture, and last season was an outlier. Contender.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Who will replace QB Ben Roethlisberger? The competition is between veterans Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph and rookie Kenny Pickett. The defense, led by 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt, should be solid. Many are predicting this will be coach Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. Those predictions might be premature. Contender.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns couldn’t build on their 2020 success last season and finished 8-9. Cleveland moved on from QB Baker Mayfield and won the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. But did it really come out a winner? Watson will be suspended for the first 11 games. And when he returns, it will be his first regular-season game in almost two years. Pretender.

AFC South

Tennessee Titans: The Titans went 12-5 last season and won their second straight AFC South title. But Tennessee suffered an early playoff exit for the second straight season. Coach Mike Vrabel has taken the Titans to the postseason in three of his four years, but will be without star receiver A.J. Brown, who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Titans will continue to feed the ball to running back Derrick Henry. The defense should remain solid. Contender.

Indianapolis Colts: For the fifth straight season under coach Frank Reich, the Colts will be starting a new quarterback in Week 1 in Matt Ryan. Last season, the Colts needed to win one of their final two games to secure a playoff spot. They were favored in each game but lost both. The offense flows through NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor. The defense was solid and should improve under new coordinator Gus Bradley. Contender.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville lasted all of 13 games. Enter new coach Doug Pederson, who guided the Eagles to the 2018 Super Bowl title. The Jaguars were last in turnover differential last season at -20 and won only three games. Pretender.

Houston Texans: The Texans have a new coach, Lovie Smith, for the second consecutive season. They are the only team that’s an underdog in all 17 games and have the league’s lowest season win total at 4½. Pretender.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.