COVID-induced silence has NFL scoring at a record rate

In the COVID-19 affected world that NFL teams are operating in this season, no side of the ball has been impacted more than offense. Scoring is up across the league, with the current 25.2 points per game average on pace to shatter the 2018 record of 23.3.

Upon canvassing current players and coaches and league executives, a number of factors are in play, but none has been more impactful than the eerily quiet stadiums, as COVID-19 restrictions have severely limited or downright eliminated fan participation.

In the process, the normally dramatic element of home-field advantage has been completely negated. The restrictions have pushed the mute button on historically deafening venues like CenturyLink in Seattle, Mercedes-Benz in New Orleans and Arrowhead in Kansas City.

Not coincidentally, six teams are averaging 30 or more points on the road, and 10 teams are averaging 29 or more points. Last season one team averaged 30 or more points on the road and only three averaged 29 or more.

“A ton” is how one NFL executive described the impact no fans in the stands has had on the powerful manner in which offenses are humming this year.

It’s an impact that is felt long before teams take the field. Teams no longer have to plan for the typically raucous road environments they face through the course of the season.

“Often when you go on the road, you simplify the plan so that things are more easily communicated, which makes your game plan easier for the opposing team to prepare for,” said former offensive lineman Rich Ohrnberger, who played five seasons in the NFL.

That is not necessary this season. Unabated by the kind of enemy territory noise that can wreak havoc on everything from the game plan to communication to timing, opposing offenses are able to operate at optimal efficiency whether they’re wearing home or away uniforms.

Crowd noise negated

The league is now allowing stadiums to play fake crowd noise at levels up to 80 decibels, far less than 140 decibels generated by fans at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The decibel level must be submitted to the league before the game and audio must be used evenly throughout the game, regardless of who’s on offense and who’s on defense.

Teams playing in empty stadiums or nearly empty stadiums are required to use the fake fan noise, but it’s optional for teams with at least 2,500 fans in attendance.

The networks use their own audio, so fake crowd noise that fans are hearing at home is not the same as the fake crowd noise that the players are hearing in the stadium.

That has led to players on the sidelines serving as de facto cheerleaders for the their teammates on the field.

In the Bills’ victory over the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium, Buffalo players on the sideline could be heard chanting “defense, defense, defense” during the game.

Nowhere is the relative silence more helpful for the offense than at the line of scrimmage. Quarterbacks are free to shout out audibles and protection calls to their 10 other teammates rather than using hand signals that may or may not reach their intended target.

Along the offensive line, centers can communicate much easier with their quarterback and linemates on blocking calls and blitz pickups and be more confident that the whole group will be on the same page.

Before this season on the road, “things that can be communicated during a home game with just one shout had to go through a sequence,” said Ohrnberger, who played for the Patriots, Cardinals and Chargers. “Whereas something could be communicated in a fraction of a second, it takes a whole second or two seconds to get to whoever is making the decision to change the call or stick with the call.”

Just as importantly, plays on the road now can begin using mouthed snap counts rather than silent counts. That helps receivers and running backs get off the line of scrimmage quickly and allows linemen to immediately be aggressive as run blockers and more quickly set up as pass blockers.

That is opposed to the hesitancy that sometimes happens when players have to time their movement to the snap of the ball, which wastes valuable get-off time and gives the defense an advantage.

Easier to communicate

“The ability to use your verbal communication that typically is eliminated in those atmospheres is a big edge offensively,” Rams coach Sean McVay said

In contrast to normal times on the road, when everyone was forced to communicate via hand gestures or taps to the leg, the relative silence this season helps to prevent a play from blowing up because the wide receiver didn’t pick up the audible call correctly from the quarterback and ended up running the wrong route.

None of that is an issue this year, said a starting offensive lineman who wished to remain anonymous. “It’s much, much easier to communicate,” he said. “And that leads to less confusion. So, obviously, that helps.”

“It changes the normal standard operating procedures on the road because every atmosphere is so good,” McVay said

Because of the relative silence, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr said the road is a less forbidding place. “As you go on the road, usually it’s hostile, it’s hard to communicate, especially when you’re dealing with young guys. I don’t know other teams’ situations. But if you’re dealing with young guys, communication, hand signals, if a guy misses a hand signal, you’re off the field.”

That is happening far less often this season, particularly for visiting offenses. The numbers bear that out

Over the first 119 games, offenses are averaging 25 points per game as the road team. And that was before the Green Bay Packers dropped 34 points on Thursday night as the road team against the San Francisco 49ers. In contrast, teams were averaging 22.8 points per game on the road through the first 121 games last season.

To put that in perspective, since tracking the stat began in 1971, no team has ever averaged 24 points per game on the road, let alone 25.

The impact is significantly felt on third and fourth downs, or the money plays that dramatically influence the outcome of games.

“It’s loud no matter what, but it’s on those big downs that home fans can really make an impact,” Ohrnberger said.

Of those moments, former Raiders tackle Lincoln Kennedy: “To the point that I literally had to try to read the lips of my teammates because I couldn’t hear a word they’re saying. And they were standing right in front of me.”

Higher conversion rates

According to Sport Radar, road teams are converting 42.3 percent of their third-down plays. That would set a new benchmark for a statistic that has been tracked since 1991, eclipsing the 39.0 percent mark of 2002.

Meanwhile, coaches are more confident in going for it on fourth down as the road team, as evidenced by the record-breaking pace of 152 fourth-down attempts this year compared to 119 at the same point last year. The conversion rate has jumped up dramatically this year to 63.8 percent compared to 53.8 percent at the same juncture last year.

All of which helps extend more drives that would have normally ended in punts, which helps increase the level of scoring.

But even for the most offensive-minded coaches, it’s come at the expense of something critical to the challenge and beauty of sports.

“You really appreciate the value of a crazy road environment,” McVay said. “I love that. I miss people yelling at me and saying stuff. I think that’s one of the things that makes the game special.”

Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on Twitter.