Raiders’ offense remains key to playoff push, analyst says

The Raiders exceeded expectations in the first half of the season because of their success in the most simple of metrics.

“If you can pick up first downs, you can win in the NFL,” Pro Football Focus analyst Eric Eager said. “It’s hard to lose consistently when you can move the football. Look at the Bears. They can’t move the ball. They have a great defense and have played an easy schedule, but they’re 5-4.”

The Raiders haven’t had that issue. They are in the top half of the NFL at 371.6 yards per game on offense despite playing one of the more difficult schedules.

“The Raiders have a really good tight end (Darren Waller) and a really good underneath player in Hunter Renfrow,” Eager said. “Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs have been really good at drawing people away from the underneath stuff, and Josh Jacobs and even Devontae Booker have been moving the pile.”

All of that has helped Derek Carr take a big step forward. PFF has him ranked 22nd of 36 qualified quarterbacks in the league, but the old critiques of Carr have grown stale.

He is ranked third when throwing the ball more than 20 yards downfield.

“All the things about him being a captain checkdown or keeping the offense from being successful based on his style of play, a lot of that is going away,” Eager said. “I don’t know how much of that is going to hang on as it gets colder and all of that, but he’s been pretty good. The rough games are still there, but I thought he was a major reason they won (Sunday against the Chargers).”

The matter of the defense is a different story. Things have not gone well, though PFF does cite a few standouts.

Nick Kwiatkoski has been good at linebacker, particularly since returning from injury. Maurice Hurst has been good along the interior of the defensive line, and Clelin Ferrell has started to show consistency while showing flashes of greatness.

While the overall results haven’t been good, there isn’t much reason to panic.

“Here’s the thing about defense — it’s actually very random,” Eager said. “It’s really a product of your schedule, and the Raiders’ schedule so far has been really hard. It gets easier down the stretch, so their defense could improve. Now, that doesn’t mean it would be good in the playoffs or anything, but I think they’ll be less of an eyesore down the stretch.”

The bottom line is the Raiders are on track to accomplish their preseason goals, which start with qualifying for the playoffs. They survived a brutal first half in which they were favored in only one game, going 5-3. Now the Raiders are well positioned to claim one of the three wild-card spots in the AFC, even though individual players grade out poorly in the PFF system.

Jon Gruden and his coaching staff are a major reason for the success.

“I’d say he’s getting more out of the team than the sum of its parts, which I always attribute to coaching,” Eager said.

Eager likes their prospects much better than last season when the Raiders were 6-4 with a playoff berth in site before finishing 7-9.

“At that point last year, they were getting outscored by like 100 points,” he said. “They go on the road against the Jets as 3-point favorites and get blown out, and it was a precursor to everything going bad down the stretch. I don’t see that being the case this year.”

NOTE — The Raiders signed wide receiver Rico Gafford to the practice squad Tuesday. He was released from the active roster last weekend and cleared waivers, making him a free agent. He has no catches on two targets and has played 17 snaps in three games.

Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on Twitter.