With focus on Waller, Renfrow could thrive against Colts
Derek Carr wasn’t about to mince words as he pondered the playoff implications of the Raiders’ last four games. “We’re in a single-elimination mindset,” Carr said.
The Raiders may not need to sweep their remaining four games to punch their postseason ticket. But Carr’s description is duly noted.
And to be clear, if they win out they are guaranteed their first playoff berth since 2016 and only their second since 2002. So in that sense, he has a point.
All of which makes Sunday’s matchup against the Indianapolis Colts at Allegiant Stadium a virtual playoff game. The 7-5 Raiders sit one game behind the 8-4 Colts in the AFC playoff race. A win not only pulls them even with Indianapolis, but it also secures the all-important tiebreaker edge should the teams finish with identical records.
The important clash contains several key matchups. Here are three:
WR Hunter Renfrow vs. CB Kenny Moore
Raiders tight end Darren Waller had 13 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns Sunday against the New York Jets, taking advantage of a defensive blunder that left him in far too many one-on-one matchups. Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus was no doubt watching, and it would be a shock if he opted to defend Waller in a similar manner.
If, as expected, Waller gets the star treatment with double teams and bracket coverage, slot receiver Hunter Renfrow should benefit.
It also will mean Colts slot cornerback Kenny Moore has to be up to the challenge, since he could be working one-on-one against Renfrow for much of the game.
Moore is the NFL’s 27th-ranked cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus,. While he’s lined up everywhere from the line of scrimmage to outside cornerback, the 450 snaps he’s taken in the slot is most indicative of his fit with the Colts.
Moore is better in run defense than pass coverage, according to PFF, and Renfrow could take advantage with his expert route running and understanding of coverages. He is the 28th-ranked wide receiver, per PFF, with 42 catches for 556 yards and two touchdowns.
CB Trayvon Mullen vs. WR T.Y. Hilton
Hilton is the NFL’s 45th-ranked wide receiver, according to PFF, and leads the Colts with 41 catches for 518 yards and two touchdowns. At 31 years old, Hilton isn’t as athletic as he once was. But he is a cagey veteran, understands the position and coverage schemes and still has the ability to hurt opponents.
Of Hilton’s 521 snaps, 447 have come lined up on the outside, so he and Mullen figure to square off often on Sunday.
Mullen is still developing into an all-around NFL cornerback. PFF ranks him 49th at that position. However, his pass-cover grade is ranked 33rd. Mullen’s growing understanding of his position and his ability to defend in one-on-one situations make him a valuable asset.
All that should come in handy against an experienced veteran like Hilton.
DE Clelin Ferrell vs. LT Anthony Castonzo
Ferrell returned from a two-game absence because of COVID-19 to terrorize the Jets with six quarterback pressures, his first two sacks and a pair of strip-sacks that resulted in fumble recoveries by the Raiders. In PFF’s 1 to 100 grading system, Ferrell earned a season-high 90.7 pass-rush grade, a sign he might be turning the corner as a disruptor off the edge.
Ferrell is ranked 14th by PFF among defensive ends and is developing into one of the NFL’s better all-around edge setters. In fact, his PFF run-defense grade is ninth-best.
Castonzo is ranked 31st among NFL tackles, according to PFF, and he is particularly ineffective as a run blocker, as evidenced by his PFF ranking of 60th in that category.
That is a weakness the stout Ferrell should be able to exploit. Coupled with a knee injury that kept Castonzo out of practice on Wednesday and could limit him on Sunday, Ferrell could be in line for another big day.
Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on Twitter.
