Graney: Rebels are peaking since loss to Boise State in October

It all begins with confidence. The kind you need to win critical games. The kind a football team needs to play a complementary style.

UNLV has a lot more of it right now than the last time it met Boise State. The Rebels are a lot more sure of themselves.

Winning so often — UNLV is 10-2 — helps.

The teams that play for the Mountain West championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff on Friday squared off Oct. 25 at Allegiant Stadium. The Broncos prevailed 29-24 in a game the Rebels led after three quarters. In a game Boise State proved better when it counted most.

This next encounter will take place on the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. It will be a different UNLV team lining up this time.

A better one than some six weeks ago.

“You can look at it in a number of different ways when you play an opponent for a second time in a season,” UNLV coach Barry Odom said. “Looks like a chess match in how strategically different things are.

“There will be a lot of in-game adjustments being made. That’s every week, but especially when you play for a second time.”

Trending right way

This is how things usually go: Teams trend one way or another at the end of a season. You’ve either improved or you haven’t. You’ve either become more competent across both lines of scrimmage or fallen off. Rarely — even the best of the best like the Oregons of college football — does a team remain the same.

UNLV is better in all phases. It’s how you want things to be in November and December.

The Rebels are running the ball better. They’re playing faster. They’re more, yes, confident.

They have a quarterback in senior Hajj-Malik Williams who has consistently raised his game as the season progressed. They have an offensive line that is superior to the one that allowed six sacks against Boise State in October.

They have a defense that is playing at a higher level than the one that held Broncos star running back Ashton Jeanty to 128 yards on 33 carries. The special teams are still rock solid.

“We know exactly where we’re supposed to be,” linebacker Jackson Woodard said. “We know the game plan. Everyone is just playing at their highest level at the perfect time. It’s not that different than the first (meeting against Boise State) when it comes to personnel or scheme, but everyone is playing with great confidence.”

You need it against Jeanty.

He hasn’t run for 2,288 yards and 28 touchdowns by mistake. He’s not in the Heisman Trophy conversation because defenses forget about him. He’s as fine a college back as the game has seen in some time.

But as well as Jeanty has played, as much as he remains the focal point of Boise State’s attack, you wonder: Will we see the Broncos that easily handled so many opponents and only lost to Oregon by three or the ones that struggled to beat Wyoming?

Boise State hasn’t been pushed much throughout an 11-1 record, but has shown signs of being somewhat vulnerable at times.

Not by much, but enough to make you think UNLV should have every chance to run its road record to 7-0 if it plays well.

And, most important, turnover free.

In the moment

“We’ve moved in the right direction every single week since that (Oct. 25) game,” Odom said. “We’re at that point where it becomes in the moment. We’re playing our best ball, and we know how important that will be.

“It comes with experience, reps, being in position to really know who you are as a team.”

UNLV does right now. It knows things have trended well.

That won’t guarantee a win Friday, won’t guarantee a conference championship and berth into the CFP, but it more than affords the Rebels a fighting chance.

They’re just better now than the last time. Winning helps.

Ed Graney, a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing, can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on X.