In March, confidence can mean everything

It took offense to the final four regular-season opponents being described as patsies.

1. Too bad.

2. It beat those four teams by an average score of 75-51.

Patsies indeed.

Along the way, with each rout of inferior Mountain West Conference basketball teams, UNLV rediscovered its confidence. That's important in November. It's everything in March.

If we are to believe those bracketologists who pore over Rating Percentage Index figures like a chemist might reaction rates, the Rebels on Sunday will be extended an NCAA Tournament berth no matter what transpires in the league tournament this week, no matter if they lose to Utah a third time and are gone from the bracket late tonight at the Thomas & Mack Center, no matter if they are one-and-done, two-and-a-barbecue or fall short in Saturday's final.

If true, it's a good position to hold.

If not, it's good to be sure of yourself this time of year.

UNLV is that and more today.

"It's important that guys are playing with confidence, shooting with confidence, moving the ball well, having awareness defensively," UNLV coach Lon Kruger said. "Now, Utah doesn't care about any of that. But it's important from our perspective."

It is a different team from the one that walked dejectedly from the Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City on a chilly Feb. 17 evening, the one that has somehow discovered a way to lose twice to a Utah team that has for some time now existed within the RPI range of 160 and arrives here 14-16.

That isn't really all that special in any way.

Opponents don't matter to players like results do. What were internal questions about UNLV's focus and effort after a stretch of three straight losses slowly became comments about a renewed sense of togetherness. Winning cures all doubts.

What it has created for UNLV the last few weeks is a team playing some of its best basketball at the most significant time, a flow that could or could not be disrupted with the return of junior Derrick Jasper.

He injured a knee against Air Force on Jan. 26 and hasn't played since, UNLV's second-leading rebounder at that point on a team that ranks average among conference teams on the boards.

Jasper at 100 percent could contribute to UNLV advancing in this tournament and perhaps a much bigger event next week. But if human nature prevails and he is hesitant in his actions in the limited time he is expected to receive, that doesn't help anyone on UNLV's side.

He might get eight to 10 minutes tonight. He might get zero. He might continue his role of spectator until next week.

This doesn't happen often, when an important player returns from injury at such a critical time of a team's season. It's a fine line for any coach whose team is playing well, deciding between finding space in a rotation and not risking what is optimal chemistry.

"Every situation is unique, but our objective is to play as effectively as we can," Kruger said. "We're not going to risk Derrick's health or the progress of the team at this point. We hope he's healthy enough, but I told him he's not playing until he feels (the knee) is stable and strong enough for him to do so comfortably and mentally. I think maybe he's probably still a week early from being at that point.

"Our No. 1 objective is that this is the conference tournament and you have to win to advance. Utah beat us twice. That adds a little spice to it. But it doesn't change the fact we have to win to advance."

UNLV should. It's better than Utah. It obviously has some matchup issues that two losses exposed, but this isn't like last season against San Diego State, when the Aztecs were a more talented team over three wins and might have beaten the Rebels 10 times had the teams met that often.

Utah isn't as talented as UNLV, nor is it playing on its home court. It's 2-0 against UNLV this season and yet a 12½-point underdog tonight for good reason.

"One thing we have done well lately is focus on possessions rather than the score," UNLV sophomore Chace Stanback said. "When you do that, you can build those large leads. Guys are stepping up, making shots, defending as a team. Utah got us twice, but our confidence is definitely very high."

That can be everything in March.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618.