Late-season blues becoming trend for Gruden-coached teams

One year is just that. Two is an anomaly.

But six … that’s a trend. And not a good one when it comes to Jon Gruden-led football teams late in a season.

Coaching matters. Perhaps not to the extent some believe — having more talent usually wins out — but rare is a team that improves as a season winds down without capable instruction.

The Raiders, for a second straight year, aren’t improving after a start that put them in a playoff position. They were 6-4 last season and finished 7-9. They were 6-3 this year and sit at 7-7 following a 30-27 overtime loss to the Chargers on Thursday night.

“I love football,” Gruden said when asked about facing the season’s final two games against extremely long odds of making the playoffs. “Love this team. We’re building our squad. Unfortunately, some of our first- and second-year players — guys we were really counting on — haven’t been available a lot (due to injury).

“We’re going to continue to fight, continue to develop, continue to work hard to get our eighth victory and see if somehow we can’t get a winning season, which would be a great accomplishment.”

Razor-thin margin

It’s not just a year-to-year league. It’s a week-to-week one. So throwing a blanket over a boatload of results isn’t the fairest mode of evaluation. Injuries, as Gruden spoke about, matter. So does a level of fortune. So might a call here or there going your way or not. Lots of things go into winning or losing in the NFL. The margin is razor-thin most weeks.

But consider: In his past six seasons as a head coach (three with Tampa Bay and three with the Raiders), Gruden is 10-25 from Week 12 on (if you count a wild-card playoff loss in 2007) and has had no winning records in those six-game stretches to end seasons.

Those records are 1-5, 2-4, 2-4, 3-3, 1-5 and 1-3 this season. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2002, Gruden’s teams are 18 games below .500 and have no playoff wins in nine seasons.

According to The Associated Press, since the league expanded its playoffs to 12 teams in 1990, 140 teams have began seasons with a 6-3 record. Of those, 74 percent made the playoffs. If the Raiders again miss the postseason, Gruden will be the first coach to do that three times after a 6-3 start.

Again. Not the sort of trend a resume seeks.

The Raiders haven’t been able to stay healthy for two years now, injuries piling up weekly now along with losses. But there is missing a certain number of starters and then there is being one harebrained defensive call by then-Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams from having dropped five straight.

The Raiders just haven’t played well enough the last month. Haven’t run the ball near well enough. Haven’t defended much at all. Haven’t been very disciplined at the most critical of times.

A series here or there can be picked apart to death. A failed two-minute drill at the end of a half or a final drive in overtime that fails to get into the end zone from inside the opponent’s 5. Gruden wasn’t at his best calling plays in either instance Thursday night.

But there’s a bigger picture at play here as to how the Raiders perform in the most important of games, one Gruden and his staff need to assess at season’s end.

Which in all likelihood will arrive following a season finale at Denver on Jan. 3.

History to trend

“Anybody who doesn’t think we’re still in (the playoff race) is mistaken, and we need some things to go our way,” Gruden said. “It would help if some of these officiating calls would go our way too, but we got to keep playing. We have to find a way to win our eighth game. If we can (do that) and get a little help around the league, we can stay in it until the final week of the season like we were last year.

“I’m not going to ever use excuses. … We were beat up big time last year, and we just haven’t been able to stay healthy down the stretch, but these are winnable games, and I’ve got to do a better job helping our team find a way to win.”

6-4 to 7-9.

6-3 to 7-7.

Bad trend, this. Some history behind it, too.

Ed Graney is a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing and can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on Twitter.