Latest college crop offers few safe bets for NBA

Chalk defines teams that have advanced to the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16, but it has nothing to do with how well the leading players might translate in the NBA.

Frustration in the world's best league today is about having 1) Stephon Marbury under contract and 2) a franchise bad enough to qualify for the draft lottery.

This year, the sentiment might carry through pingpong balls being slotted. It's a draft with the star quality of Ivy League football.

"There are no surefire NBA All-Stars," one Western Conference scout said. "I think you can find some quality players, maybe a few starters and a lot of role players and rotation guys."

I can hear general managers yawning now.

College basketball is better for the NBA rule that dictates a player attends school for at least one year before entering the draft.

Derrick Rose. Michael Beasley. Kevin Love. O.J. Mayo. Without them wearing college uniforms last season, the game would have been far less skilled and not nearly as interesting, meaning everyone would have looked like a Big Ten team.

But there are few such first-year players this March. What remains in the tournament is a consensus No. 1 overall pick and a whole lot of vagueness.

Sixteen teams. It still was a chore for a handful of NBA scouts to identify five players remaining in the NCAA field who could have a serious impact at the next level. It's assumed all underclassmen listed will leave school early because, well, why wouldn't they in this weak a draft?

1. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma: He is being called a more athletic, more explosive, more consistent Carlos Boozer. There isn't a close second in any draft projection worth reading. Scouts believe any holes in his game will be fixed when his life solely becomes six hours in a gym daily, or a few more than it took Mountain West Conference teams to weakly bow out of the tournament.

One scout's take: "He'll be better than Boozer. He has the size and hands and athleticism."

2. Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut: We haven't heard of any improper relationships with former team managers-turned-slimy-agents, so figure there won't be any embarrassing draft-night stories to accompany Thabeet's selection. He could be a defensive anchor at center for some team the next 10 to 12 years.

One scout's take: "He's athletic and has better hands than people think. He runs pretty well. Most think (Arizona State guard) James Harden would go after Griffin, but don't be surprised if Thabeet moves into the second pick. A handful of teams have gotten off Harden of late."

Which I assume means they finally saw him play.

3. Jordan Hill, Arizona: The odds of Hill and teammate Chase Budinger (another first-round pick) returning to school to play for what likely would be a fourth head coach in four years are like those of Lute Olson taking the vacant job at Alabama.

One scout's take: "(Hill) could be very successful in our league. He can knock down the 15-footer, gets up and down the court, finishes at the rim with both hands. Teams love him. He'll be a top-five pick."

4. Ty Lawson, North Carolina: You hear scouts talk about him and wonder if the Tar Heels' star is a point guard or a new brand of 747.

One scout's call: "He has Chris Paul speed from one end of the court to the next. He's a jet, as fast as anyone in the country. Some are questioning his toughness with the (recent) toe injury, but he's pretty athletic and strong and can finish at the basket."

5. Tyreke Evans, Memphis: Point guard? Shooting guard? Combo guard? Who knows? What is acknowledged about the 6-foot-5-inch freshman is that he can get to any spot on the floor at any time he desires.

One scout's call: "I hate his shot. It needs a ton of work. But he's another kid who could get a lot of things fixed when it's just about being in the gym all day."

Just for fun and realizing the Mountain West quickly became as much afterthought in this year's tournament as K-Fed, I asked scouts to rank the league's top three NBA prospects.

They were unanimous in the trio:

1. Luke Nevill, Utah.

2. Lorrenzo Wade, San Diego State.

3. Lee Cummard, Brigham Young.

One scout's call: "All three will play in our league. Nevill because of his size; Wade is physically ready right now, and while his shot needs work, he can really guard and rebound; Cummard needs to get stronger, but his game is well-rounded, and he won't hurt you when he's in there."

Footnote: When considering Mountain West players, none of the scouts was asked to gauge the impact of Utah coach Jim Boylen potentially rushing the stage and crying on the shoulder of NBA commissioner David Stern upon Nevill being selected.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at 702-383-4618 or egraney@reviewjournal.com.