Mountain West holds losing hand with BCS waiver request

On its face, the evidence presented by the Mountain West Conference to be granted a two-year waiver for automatic Bowl Championship Series inclusion is like holding a pair of queens at the poker table before the flop.

In reality, the league is holding an offsuit jack-2.

Common sense and fairness have never owned a spot at the BCS table, so don't expect them to suddenly pull up a chair. If those who will decide the Mountain West's fate were a jury, deliberations might not last past lunch.

Even then, they would likely delay on purpose to make it look as though meaningful discussions took place.

I hope I'm wrong. I don't believe so.

How anyone could think a presidential oversight committee whose 12 members include six from power leagues and one from Notre Dame would allow for such a waiver hasn't closely followed how the BCS cartel has done business from the moment it was formed.

Which is to say unfairly and with little regard to those not in their fraternity.

Nine votes. That's how many the Mountain West needs in favor of its request to gain automatic BCS access the next two years.

It might as well be 90.

Maybe change really is closer than the next town. Maybe the mounting pressure and criticism will force those in the cartel to alter their system following the 2013 season. Maybe all the whispers and rumors are true that, while not being completely obliterated, the BCS is at least in for a visit from Ty Pennington and his "Extreme Makeover" TV crew.

But here's the thing that people who assume a much different look at college football's postseason is imminent keep forgetting: Those obsolete university presidents who created and control the system still believe theirs is the best way, still fear having to share additional pieces of the massive financial pie, still have the gall to trot out spokesmen with ridiculous statements about the BCS not being divisive.

They still claim to be misunderstood and do so with straight faces.

If there weren't precedent to this waiver business, I would say the Mountain West fell short in its pursuit to be deemed worthy of an automatic bid. The league met two of the three standards for a waiver to be considered over a four-year period, not making it in average conference rating.

But no one with anything close to an unbiased view can argue against the Mountain West's worthiness when compared with some automatic BCS leagues. The Big East is annually defined by falling short, and it went 10 years being granted extensions for automatic status.

It and the Atlantic Coast Conference fell short during the most recent evaluation period, and yet I'm guessing each will keep its automatic bid through 2013.

I can hear the arguments against a Mountain West waiver now, far before the oversight committee meets to chuckle at, er, consider the request. They will mostly center on conference expansion and upheaval, on how no one knows what the Mountain West, or most leagues for that matter, will look like following the 2103 season.

The irony in all of it is how large a part the cartel has played in programs such as San Diego State willingly downgrading its athletic programs -- except football -- to the Big West Conference, just to find a home and the promise of riches in the Big East.

Maybe the windfall will be as promised in such cases and maybe it won't after 2013, but those jumping off the Mountain West ship obviously feel the risk is worth it in search of the almighty automatic berth. Who can blame them, really?

The option to seek a waiver is available, so it makes sense that the Mountain West would vigorously pursue it, but you have to figure UNLV's football team has a better chance of winning the conference next season than at least nine votes going the league's way.

I'm not sure how much juice those presidents on the committee from leagues lacking automatic qualification own, but would hope any influence their words have is used often before the group meets, which could be next week.

Consider: Those presidents/chancellors on the committee whose leagues enjoy automatic bids are from Southern California, Nebraska, Alabama, Texas, Virginia Tech and South Florida.

The president of Notre Dame also sits in judgment.

Assuming the other five leagues represented vote in favor of the waiver -- of which there is no guarantee when you consider the hard feelings some likely hold about losing teams to the Mountain West -- at least four of the above schools must offer their support as well.

Sure looks like an offsuit Jack-2 to me.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard from 3 to 5 p.m. Tuesday and Thursday on "Monsters of the Midday," Fox Sports Radio 920 AM. Follow him on Twitter: @edgraney.