NBA set to follow in NFL’s missteps

I am guessing that the idea of contraction would be celebrated by fans of the Memphis Grizzlies today the same way security officials would greet a throng of wedding crashers around Buckingham Palace.

The NBA playoffs have been exciting, dramatic, memorable, unpredictable.

Imagine what could happen in the second round.

Pau Gasol might even remember how to play.

We are this close to Memphis meeting Oklahoma City in the Western Conference semifinals, to what would be a compelling series beyond a No. 8 seed (Memphis) still being alive and guessing how high oddsmakers might offer a prop bet for the number of shot attempts by Russell Westbrook.

It would be a battle of small-market teams for the right to move within one step of the Finals.

That's big news in 2011.

When it comes to labor negotiations, it's all about the little guys.

If you view the NFL lockout as a fairly large mountain of trouble, think of one in the NBA as Everest.

More and more, it appears one of the best NBA playoff marathons in decades will be followed by the second lockout of a major sports league this year.

"The NFL is sort of out there on display," NBA commissioner David Stern said last week. "Here they are, they're profitable, but their future somehow is involved in some combination of court cases and (labor) proceedings. On behalf of the NBA -- and I believe on behalf of the union -- (we) understand that's a route that should be avoided."

A guess: Prince William and Kate have a better chance of avoiding cameras Friday.

Reports on Tuesday said the players' union already owns enough votes to decertify if basketball goes the way of football and a lockout is imposed once the collective bargaining agreement expires June 30.

It went on to say a favorable ruling for NFL players this week that lifted the lockout (which could mean nothing if a stay is granted and an appeal upheld) has given their NBA counterparts an early victory as their own CBA deadline approaches.

Isn't it great to be a sports fan nowadays?

Don't you feel all warm and cozy and appreciated?

An NBA lockout could be long and ugly and have everything to do with small-market teams such as Memphis and Toronto and the Sacramento/Anaheim/Palms Las Vegas Kings and so on, with those who have struggled to find room on the same playground as the financial behemoths such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston and others who have approached paying above the luxury-tax threshold the same way Bill Gates might approach buying a taco.

It's not that small-market teams can't and haven't been successful. The Spurs covered four fingers in rings from 1999 to 2007. The Jazz before this season made the playoffs more than The Jimmer has been asked for an autograph. Oklahoma City has built a team that should contend for years to come.

But star players and small markets mix less and less over the long term. There are just so many Kevin Durants around. Most stars want to be seen in big cities that contend for titles. This isn't the NFL, where a hard salary cap has made it possible that all franchises can talk about winning a championship and not be laughed out of their stadium. Yep, even the Lions.

Contraction should be a last option in the NBA, and not just because LeBron James has no idea what the word means. It might seem all rosy today -- the idea that some of the best players on the worst teams might land in a more competitive environment -- but it's a move that comes with a large dose of thorns.

I don't consider something a salary cap when teams can spend upward of $30 million above a soft number, when there are more loopholes available than the nets players shoot at.

I doubt the NBA is losing as much money as Stern wants you to think, but the league definitely operates under a shade of red and is also not of the same financial world of the NFL and its national TV packages.

NBA players don't want a hard cap. They don't want shorter contracts. They want big markets to continue having the right to outspend smaller ones.

Then they should do their best to sign with one of five or so teams if they ever seriously want to make a run at the ring, because for as memorable and exciting and dramatic as these playoffs have been so far, the league's long-term health is in major jeopardy if a new CBA doesn't first address salaries.

The NBA can prosper without contraction.

It can't without a hard cap.

Should be a fun summer, no?

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard from 3 to 5 p.m. Monday and Thursday on "Monsters of the Midday," Fox Sports Radio 920 AM. Follow him on Twitter: @edgraney.