UNLV should assume nothing

UNLV's basketball team over the next week needs to be the family going on vacation for a month. Lock all doors. Check the stove. Postpone mail delivery. Keep the porch light on. Take no chances.

Assume nothing.

It's a lesson that should have been learned when 28 victories and an RPI of 10 last year presented the Rebels a ridiculous No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, a truth that your Bracketology of choice is something to be enjoyed but not believed.

"We're going to approach it just like we have the 30 games we have played," Rebels coach Lon Kruger said. "The next game is the only one that matters, the only one that is important to us. And then you hope to have an opportunity to play another. We've never done anything in the last 30 years but prepare for the next game."

It will come in the opening round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Thursday, when UNLV as the No. 2 seed again welcomes the event to its home floor and attempts to repeat as champion.

The team that has grinded out four wins in its last five games isn't performing on a full tank. The needle might not be completely on reserve, but it's heading in that direction. You can almost smell the fumes.

If the Rebels are to win three times in three days and clinch an automatic NCAA berth, they will do so with a rotation that on Saturday appeared to own six capable bodies, or at least six who knew the offense.

Fact: If UNLV somehow discovers the resiliency to duplicate what occurred at the Thomas & Mack Center a year ago, it will have earned such a position even more this time.

Kruger says his 23-7 team is no wearier than any other program at this point in a season, and it's true you would be challenged to find a handful nationally boasting of fresh legs.

But in surviving Utah 70-63 in a regular-season finale, UNLV did enough standing to suggest it's fighting the fatigue of playing an entire season undermanned and undersized.

The Utes are big and strong. They weren't going to allow the Rebels free lanes to drive, but UNLV took 20 minutes to begin regularly attacking.

Curtis Terry had a memorable game on Senior Day for UNLV with 22 points, five rebounds and 10 assists, but we lost count of the point guard's dribbles at 3,467 as he continued waiting for others to engage.

It's not the time of year to experiment with rotations, meaning a player such as Mareceo Rutledge probably will play meaningful tournament minutes and needs to contribute more than Saturday's line of no points, one rebound and an assist in 14 minutes.

He appeared too confused offensively for this being the 30th game. The eighth man was Kendall Wallace, who played two minutes. Simply, thin benches can't afford to become totally emaciated in March.

Can the Rebels win those three games with six contributing players? We might find out.

"It's not like we're limping home," Kruger said. "There have been a few occasions where we have been whipped pretty good and have bounced back every time. Credit our leadership. They know what is important. We're like every other team in the country -- it's a tough grind."

Confidence can lift tired and sometimes inferior talent, and UNLV should own more of it than eight other conference teams this week. The Rebels have won 33 of their past 35 home games and are 47-7 here the last three years.

If such an edge is enough to advance the Rebels to a conference tournament final, regardless of outcome, inviting the public to a Selection Sunday party should end in cheers when the NCAA bracket is announced. At that point, a team thought to be rebuilding five months ago will stand with 25 wins and an RPI better than 30. Even a brainless selection committee can't miss that one, can it?

But an exit in the tournament's first two rounds could make for a sleepless night or two for UNLV coaches and players. If decisions were made today, the Rebels are in. But things can change quickly.

"I have no idea if (UNLV has already done enough to reach the NCAAs)," Kruger said. "I know everyone likes to talk about it as fans, but even if we win the next three, we'll act as if we need to win one more.

"It's fun to talk about. It's fun conversation. But we'll act like we need to win one more every time we line up."

It's the only attitude to have today: Assume nothing.

Ed Graney's column is published Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. He can be reached at 383-4618 or egraney@reviewjournal.com.