A-Rod toting extra playoff weight; is gal pal Kate?

As the seasons change and it gets cold on the East Coast, this is when the heat is intensely on Alex Rodriguez. He spends summers knocking the snot out of pitchers but in October falls flat on his face.

If the New York Yankees are to avoid another postseason bust, Rodriguez needs a breakout October in the Bronx. It's not all on him, of course, but it's time. He's overdue, and so are the Yankees.

It often seems A-Rod enjoys being a tabloid celebrity more than a baseball star. And now rumors are swirling that his girlfriend, actress Kate Hudson, is pregnant. Rodriguez has two kids from a previous marriage, and Hudson has one. If the rumors prove true, the couple soon could be halfway to a new TV show, "A-Rod & Kate Plus Eight."

Off-field nonsense aside, A-Rod is expected to produce when the playoffs start Wednesday and Thursday, and the Yankees are 9-5 favorites to win the World Series.

The prediction here is we will see the Yankees in the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, and A-Rod finally will add a championship to his checkered resume.

The call for a Cardinals-Yankees showdown is backed by handicapper Andy Iskoe, who rivals Bill James when it comes to numbers crunching. But Iskoe sees the Los Angeles Angels as the "dangerous underdog" in an American League scenario that promises intrigue.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Sean Van Patten said the Yankees would be about 3-1 favorites over Detroit -- or bigger favorites over Minnesota -- in a best-of-5 American League division series.

The Angels-Boston Red Sox series is expected to open as a pick, but Van Patten said, "The Angels could be a slight favorite of minus-120."

The public probably will bet Boston, yet the Angels have the home-field advantage and a rotation topped by John Lackey and Jered Weaver. If he chooses, Angels manager Mike Scioscia could start Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders in Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park, where both left-handers have had a lot of success. Ervin Santana should be the perfect addition to the Angels' soft bullpen.

"I think the Angels are a very dangerous team because of that rotation," Iskoe said. "The Angels' ability to win on the road might make them an attractive futures play (at 5-1)."

The Red Sox are slumping, but it's always tough to bet against them when Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are on the mound. Both are battling injuries, though, so the door is open for the Angels to bust through.

The strength of the Yankees is a powerful lineup led off by Derek Jeter and anchored by Mark Teixeira, who can do more if A-Rod does less.

The potential problem with the Yankees is their rotation behind ace CC Sabathia, who has a shaky postseason history of his own. A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte are unpredictable, and Joba Chamberlain is even more unreliable and better off in the bullpen. Pettitte can win big games. Burnett walked nine when he threw a no-hitter in 2001, and he hasn't changed much.

"You don't know what you're going to get with Burnett," Iskoe said. "I would not feel all that comfortable trusting him in a key game. The Yankees have a No. 1 pitcher and maybe a pair of No. 3s. I'm not as confident in the Yankees winning the AL because of their starting pitching when I compare it to the Angels and Red Sox.

"I would predict the Yankees to win the AL. But at the right price -- about plus-150 -- I could be tempted to bet on the Red Sox or Angels. I don't think the Yankees' edge is that decided."

And don't just dismiss Detroit's chances against the Yankees. With starting pitchers Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello, the Tigers won't be pushovers in a short series.

The picture in the National League is still fuzzy, but it's clear no team is limping into the postseason worse than the Los Angeles Dodgers, losers of four in a row and with an offense and rotation in disarray.

It's a scary fact that Randy Wolf has replaced Chad Billingsley, who has won one of his past 10 starts, as staff ace. Manny Ramirez, off whatever juice he was unknowingly taking, has one home run in his past 15 games and is hitting .257 over his past 59 games.

"St. Louis could be the No. 3 seed in the NL but the betting favorite," said Iskoe (thelogicalapproach.com).

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals' top starters, are a combined 36-12. With big-time run producers Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, Iskoe said the Cardinals are a "more complete team" than the Philadelphia Phillies, who have seen lefty Cole Hamels struggle and closer Brad Lidge burn out.

"The combination of Carpenter and Wainwright certainly has been, if not dominant, extremely consistent all year," Iskoe said.

In April, these were the top four teams on the Las Vegas Hilton's regular-season wins board: the Red Sox and Yankees (both at 941/2), Chicago Cubs (92) and New York Mets (89). Of that group only the Yankees, with 102 wins, are exceeding oddsmakers' expectations.

"At the beginning of the season, my prediction was for the Yankees to win the World Series," Iskoe said. "Of course, I had them beating the Mets. I didn't think the Yankees would win more than 100 games."

If the Yankees don't hit the magic number of 11 wins in the postseason, A-Rod again could be feeling the heat.

Contact sports betting reporter/columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@ reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.