‘Bama on borrowed time

It's debatable if there's a luckier guy alive than Hugh Hefner. If there's a college football coach luckier than Alabama's Nick Saban right now, who is it?

Obviously, it's not Mike Sanford or Charlie Weis, though each will be extremely lucky if he remains in his job in a month or so.

Saban has his Crimson Tide at 9-0 and in position to play in the farce known as the Bowl Championship Series title game. Alabama certainly will be deserving if it runs the table and beats Florida, but let's not look too far ahead.

Looking back, the Tide probably should have lost to Tennessee three weeks ago, and Saban was fortunate to escape against Louisiana State last week.

"Is it possible the Tide peaked too early? It's starting to look that way after three straight unimpressive victories," said Las Vegas handicapper Bryan Leonard of Footballwinners.com.

Alabama has not scored more than 24 points in its past four games, beating Tennessee 12-10 and using a string of lucky breaks to win and amazingly cover 71/2 points in a 24-15 victory over LSU.

Saban is a great coach, and he has another great defense. The Tide's Mark Ingram is a superb running back, too. But this is a team that seems to be living on borrowed time.

Leonard said Alabama is laying too many points Saturday as a 12-point favorite at Mississippi State.

"While the Tide defense has been terrific all season, the offense is showing plenty of weakness," Leonard said. "Alabama seemed to get every call last week against (LSU), and the week before they survived the upset a number of times against (Tennessee).

"This is an overrated team right now that simply shouldn't be a favorite of this magnitude."

Mississippi State, prepared and rested after a bye, has covered in three straight under first-year coach Dan Mullen, a former Florida assistant. The Bulldogs covered Oct. 24 in a 29-19 home loss to the Gators.

"The well-rested underdog takes the cash here as Alabama struggles for the outright win once again," Leonard said.

The Bulldogs won outright twice in the past three series meetings, including a 17-12 upset the last time Alabama visited Starkville. The Tide clinched the Southeastern Conference West Division title with the victory over LSU.

I'll save the exhausting BCS debates for another day. Meanwhile, let's hope Boise State and Texas Christian keep winning and be thankful Iowa has vanished from the picture.

The Hawkeyes were phony contenders, a fact cemented by their 17-10 loss to Northwestern. Iowa is suddenly a big road underdog, getting 161/2 points at Ohio State on Saturday.

Freshman quarterback James Vandenberg steps in for the Hawkeyes to replace injured Ricky Stanzi. But Leonard said he was not a dues-paying member of the Stanzi fan club anyway, and he's taking Iowa and the points because of its defense.

The Hawkeyes have held five of 10 opponents to season lows in yardage, none of their opponents has scored more than 28 points, and seven of 10 failed to reach 18 points.

Stock in Ohio State and quarterback Terrelle Pryor is soaring again after a 24-7 upset victory at Penn State.

"The Buckeyes haven't fared well when they were expected to win, and I'm not sure they can put enough points on the board to cover this spread," Leonard said. "Look for this to be a close game with points coming at a premium."

• CLOSING NUMBERS -- I went 3-3 last week with a tough-luck loser on LSU. The fear of Friday the 13th is called paraskevidekatriaphobia, and I have no fear of that, so hopefully this is my lucky day. Here are six picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Michigan State (-21/2) over PURDUE; KANSAS (+41/2) over Nebraska; Notre Dame (+7) over PITTSBURGH; Stanford (+11) over USC; UNR (-7) over Fresno State; SAN DIEGO STATE (-7) over Wyoming.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2907.