Bears should cover behind running game

It's hard work being a running back in the NFL, where even the swiftest runners can look old and slow soon after turning 30, so Matt Forte recently asked the Chicago Bears for a pay raise. What he's getting instead is a heavier workload.

Most of us can relate to that.

The Bears are in crisis, or so it seems, with quarterback Jay Cutler sidelined by a broken right thumb. This time, Cutler's injury is definitely legitimate.

In steps Caleb Hanie, who will make his first pro start Sunday at Oakland. In the NFC wild-card chase, Chicago (7-3) still is a favorite to reach the playoffs after a five-game winning streak.

But the Bears are 4½-point underdogs to the Raiders, and the line is two to three points higher than it would have been with Cutler in the lineup. I'll take the points, trusting that Hanie is not a bad backup plan.

First and foremost, Chicago's game plan will focus more on Forte, who leads the league with 1,391 yards from scrimmage, including 926 yards rushing. The Raiders' run defense ranks 26th and has allowed 157 yards per game at home.

The Bears also can lean more on a defense led by linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs and end Julius Peppers. Most of Chicago's defensive numbers, in terms of yardage allowed, are weak, but 23 turnovers are strong enough to rank No. 2 in the league, and nine of those takeaways came in the past two games.

Urlacher and Briggs can contain an Oakland running attack again reliant on Michael Bush. Darren McFadden has been ruled out for a fourth consecutive game because of a foot sprain.

The Raiders' new quarterback, Carson Palmer, is not exactly imitating Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Drew Brees these days. Palmer also could be without injured wide receivers Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford.

A few other factors are favorable for the Bears, who hold a wild card in return specialist Devin Hester. The Raiders lack discipline, proven by their league-high 103 penalties, and they played dead in the "Black Hole" in home losses to Kansas City (28-0) and Denver (38-24), with Palmer as the starter against the Broncos.

After Cutler pulled up lame in last season's NFC title game, Hanie filled in and led two touchdown drives. He lacks experience, but he's a decent passer and displays mobility, and he has enough help to extend the Bears' 5-0 run against the spread.

As for Forte, he could make around $7.7 million next year if the team sticks him with the dreaded franchise tag. Few of us can relate to that dilemma.

Four more plays for Week 12 (home team in CAPS):

■ Panthers (-3) over COLTS: This is the best shot Indianapolis (0-10, 2-8 ATS) has to win a game. I'll take a small risk in saying it won't happen. Colts quarterback Curtis Painter is 0-7 as a starter. His backup, Dan Orlovksy, started seven times for the 0-16 Detroit Lions in 2008. If rookie quarterback Cam Newton is worthy of half the hype he's getting, he'll lead Carolina to a win and cover.

■ Patriots (-3½) over EAGLES: Philadelphia cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha could miss the game with a knee injury, compounding the already difficult challenge of slowing the Patriots' passing attack. New England coach Bill Belichick is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 on the road. If Michael Vick is missing again, don't bet on Vince Young working another miracle for the Eagles, not against Brady.

■ Broncos (+6) over CHARGERS: Tim Tebow or Norv Turner? The Denver quarterback is an ugly 4-1 as the starter. The San Diego coach is a hideous 2-8 ATS this season. I won't wager on this one, but it could be more fun to watch than a hot air balloon explosion.

■ Giants (+7) over SAINTS: Normally, it would seem foolish to bet against New Orleans at home on a Monday night, and it might turn out that way. But New York coach Tom Coughlin was embarrassed by a loss to the Eagles last week, and he does not like being embarrassed. Coughlin does like the road, and I like his 22-8 ATS record as an underdog.

Last week: 2-2-1 against the spread

Season: 27-24-4

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at 702-387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.