Bettors backing away from Patriots

Apparently, Bill Belichick is running lower on brain power and Tom Brady's man card is expiring. A high percentage of the betting public no longer respects the New England Patriots' greatness.

Betting against Belichick once was considered as wise as staring at the sun or hitting the ATM while a stripper holds your hand. But the coaching genius is now being perceived as some sort of doofus.

As for Brady, we used to think women wanted to be with him and men wanted to be him. But now, they all just want to bet against him. He's being perceived as an aging quarterback who changes hairstyles more often than a chick.

The Patriots have lost their edge. It must be obvious, because according to several bookmakers I've talked with this week, roughly 75 percent of the Super Bowl bets are on the underdog New York Giants.

"I'm a little surprised how much support the Giants are getting," said Mike Colbert, the Cantor Gaming sports book director at M Resort, and similar quotes came from sources all over Las Vegas.

Cantor Gaming is offering New England at minus-3 (plus-110). At MGM Resorts, it's minus-2½ (minus-125). At the South Point and Wynn Las Vegas, it's minus-2½ (minus-110). Keep in mind, the Patriots opened as 3½- to 4-point favorites at most books.

About 90 percent of Super Bowl wagers are made today, Saturday and Sunday, and the books are bracing for a fierce rush on the Giants' side, and we're not just talking about Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora.

"The Patriots have been probably the most popular public team all season, but we've got guys who bet the Patriots every single week, and now they are betting the Giants," Colbert said.

According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, the betting favorite in Las Vegas has won 33 of 45 Super Bowls (73 percent), and a standard 3-point favorite in the NFL has a 57 percent chance of winning the game.

But if you're watching ESPN this week, many analysts are saying the wrong team is favored. If the line closes at 2½, this would be only the fourth of 46 Super Bowls with a spread of less than a field goal.

Bell also said the NFC team has won 14 straight coin tosses in the Super Bowl, and the odds against that are 16,383 to 1. In the previous 45 games, the coin has come up heads 23 times and tails 22. That's not critical information, but it's funny, and it goes to show how every angle of research on this game is exhausted.

I've never read one of the 1,475 pages of the paperback version of "War and Peace," but I did read handicapper Andy Iskoe's newsletter on the Super Bowl, and Iskoe's in-depth analysis is something Leo Tolstoy would admire.

Iskoe (TheLogicalApproach.com) pointed out countless point-spread and statistical facts, including: In each of the past eight Super Bowls, the team with the better regular-season record has failed to cover the spread, with five losing outright. That would seem to be bad news for the Patriots, but after making several cases for and against each team, Iskoe picked the Patriots to win by 7 points.

(See the Sunday edition of the Las Vegas Review-Journal for our Super Bowl opinion poll, in which media members and handicappers forecast the final score. I've got the Patriots, 25-22.)

Iskoe did a study on the significance of 3 in NFL betting. From the beginning of the 1988 season to the conference championship games two weeks ago, there were a total of 6,091 games, and 962 (15.8 percent) landed on 3.

"The more important point is how often favorites of 3 win by exactly 3 points," said Iskoe, and his research shows there have been 981 3-point favorites since 1988, and 103 (10.5 percent) won by 3.

New England is 3-1 in Super Bowls under Belichick, and all four were decided by a field goal.

"To me, the value looks like it lies completely with the Patriots," Colbert said. "There's no way this number can be under a field goal. It should be slightly over a field goal. I think if you're going to bet the Giants, you should have done it already, but I don't think the public has even bet the Super Bowl yet.

"I like the Patriots a lot. The Giants were 7-7 at one point and looked really bad. I just think the Patriots are better, and they have been better all year. The Patriots are a smarter team and better coached."

Cantor Gaming has accepted one $1 million wager, but Colbert declined to say which side it was on or if it came from Floyd Mayweather Jr.

"We have three people who said they were going to bet $1 million for sure," Colbert said. "We have taken a few big bets, a big one on the Patriots and two big ones on the Giants, but nothing absurdly big. I do think there will be big New England money at some point."

Colbert made cases for and against each team before saying he's siding with Belichick.

Is Brady the problem? Is he less of a threat because he's married with children, a combination that can make a mess of a man?

Brady is no Al Bundy, and Belichick still is the smartest guy in the room. That's my story, and I'm sticking with the Patriots.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.