Bettors itching to spin wheel on NFL season

It now appears a near certainty that on Sept. 8, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers will be trading shots as the past two Super Bowl champions kick off the NFL regular season at Lambeau Field.

If not, we could be falling asleep on the couch while spending a quiet Thursday night watching Pat Sajak and Vanna White trade smiles on "Wheel of Fortune."

Smart money says if you're reading this you would rather see Brees and the New Orleans Saints play Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, and it's a good bet that's going to happen.

After countless rounds of negotiations and all sorts of legal wrangling, an NFL labor deal is close to ending the 108-day lockout.

"I think it is going to start on time and they will play every game," Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert said.

On June 10, Colbert opened lines for all 256 games on the NFL's 17-week schedule. The accompanying disclaimer -- games must be played within 45 days of the originally scheduled date for action -- should be a moot point.

League commissioner Roger Goodell and Players Association boss DeMaurice Smith are suddenly getting along as well as Sajak and White, traveling the country together and hinting they are ready to strike a deal on how to divide a $9 billion fortune.

The financial consequences of no NFL season could be harsh for Las Vegas' sports books and casinos, and those of us who bet the games would miss the action.

We still would have college football to kick around. But the NFL is the green monster accounting for about 25 percent of Cantor Gaming's annual handle, a figure consistent with most other books.

"It's no small potatoes," Colbert said. "But I don't think there's any reason to sit here and sweat it. If we get to the middle of August and there's still no deal, we might sweat."

A delay to the season would disrupt the football contests, too. Colbert is moving ahead. Cantor Gaming will offer a $10,000 entry-fee contest in which contestants -- similar to the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest -- pick five NFL games against the spread each week. Registration opens the third week of July.

Hilton book director Jay Kornegay said regular-season win totals will be posted around July 10, and SuperContest registration begins Aug. 1.

After posting lines on 17 weeks of games, with a limit of $2,000 per wager, Colbert said bettors reacted as if it's business as usual.

"I have not heard anyone say, 'That is good stuff, but I'm not going to bet it because we don't know if they're going to play,' " Colbert said. "We didn't get a barrage of bets, but it has filtered through pretty consistently and it's starting to pick up. I would say probably 70 percent of the bets are sharp or limit bets."

Average Joe has no interest today in betting the Kansas City-Indianapolis game in Week 5, but the pros are always looking for an edge in a number. Colbert said about 50 lines have moved at least one point, with a few moving two points.

Professional gambler Steve Fezzik (LVAsports.com) was quick to lay 2½ points with the Colts at Cincinnati in Week 6.

"It's a silly number," Fezzik said. "But if I put up 17 weeks of numbers, I would mess up a few myself. It's impossible."

Training camps are scheduled to open in three weeks. Before that can happen, the lockout must be lifted and a free-agency frenzy will reshape the rosters of several teams. Opening the NFL numbers this summer was trickier than ever.

Cantor used its high-tech computer, nicknamed Midas, and the opinions of its oddsmakers to set the lines. Midas, which gained mystique after an ESPN feature last year, is a complex math model.

"Truthfully, the computer is the biggest opinion," Colbert said. "I really like the numbers it produces for the NFL probably better than any other sport.

"Green Bay has been a bet-on team. Everybody knows the Packers are going to be good, but we have them power-ranked a little less than a lot of (pros) do. We got a lot of Colts bets, too, but I think we basically asked for that. One guy has bet against Tampa Bay in 10 or 11 games, and I like Tampa Bay."

Fezzik was the bettor who sided against the Buccaneers in so many games, and he took the Chicago Bears as 1½-point underdogs to Tampa Bay in Week 7 in London.

"I don't see how you can make Tampa a better power-rated team than the Bears," he said. "I'm not high on (quarterback) Josh Freeman and I'm not high on the coach. A crappy team off a breakthrough year is a team I'm looking to fade. Every day that goes by with the lockout, I want to bet the teams with stable coaching staffs."

As the NFL lockout seems to near an end, the NBA lockout begins. Now is not the time to sweat either one.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.