Beware of Giants in role of underdog
Nothing gets the New York Giants more riled up than being cast in the underdog role. Eli Manning magically transforms into an elite quarterback, and coach Tom Coughlin coaxes the best effort out of his team.
Put a plus sign next to the Giants, and they are hard to resist. Their top two performances this season came when they were road underdogs at Carolina and Philadelphia. They punished the Panthers and let the Eagles off the hook in a two-point loss.
In the Giants' run to the Super Bowl championship last postseason, they were underdogs against Green Bay, San Francisco and New England. During the regular season, they were 'dogs seven times and went 4-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread.
Anyone who doubts that NFL coaches pay attention to betting lines needs to hear what Coughlin had to say this week. The Giants are 6½-point underdogs at San Francisco, and that made Coughlin more cranky than usual.
"Nobody gives us a chance to win," said Coughlin, using an obvious motivational ploy to fire up his players. "We'll see."
The 49ers and Patriots rank as the league's top two teams, at least in my power ratings, so it stands to reason the Giants should not be favored. No chance. But I tend to like their chances to cover, because that's their trend in this role.
A strong trend also favors San Francisco, which is 10-1-1 ATS at home under Jim Harbaugh, one of my least favorite coaches to bet against.
But I'm going to back the Giants and bank on Manning, who ranks among the league leaders with 1,579 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. He's getting big plays from wide receiver Victor Cruz, and Ahmad Bradshaw rushed for a career-high 200 yards last week against Cleveland. That doesn't mean as much considering Bradshaw did it against the Browns, but it's a sign of progress for New York's running attack.
The Giants are in a groove offensively, averaging 429 yards and 30.4 points per game. Of course, the No. 2-ranked San Francisco defense presents a difficult challenge.
The 49ers, who thrive in the favorite's role, pounded Buffalo and the New York Jets by a combined score of 79-3 the past two weeks.
Rarely will I take the side opposite San Francisco, and it might prove foolish to do so now, but the Giants getting points is an offer I can't refuse.
Four more plays for Week 6 (Home team in CAPS):
■ Cowboys (+3½) over RAVENS: Tony Romo has had two weeks to think about his five-interception embarrassment against the Bears. Dallas' trend is to be terrible as a favorite. The Cowboys' only strong showing came as underdogs in a season-opening victory over the Giants, so I'll take a shot with Romo against Joe Flacco, who produced a pathetic nine points last week at Kansas City. Also, Dallas went 6-1 ATS after a bye the past seven seasons.
■ Rams (+4) over DOLPHINS: Miami also tends to fail as a favorite. I'm far from sold on quarterback Sam Bradford and the St. Louis offense. But I will buy points with Jeff Fisher, who is 4-1 ATS as Rams coach.
■ Patriots (-3½) over SEAHAWKS: New England has the quarterback and coaching edges every week. This week, Seattle has the home field and league's No. 1 defense. But on this ugly card, there are worse options than Tom Brady. The Patriots rank first in total offense and third in rushing, and they are 3-0 ATS on the road.
■ Broncos (+1½) over CHARGERS: Peyton Manning is my pick to lead Denver to the AFC West title, and I suspect the Broncos' defense is better than it has looked against a tough schedule. San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its past nine as a home favorite.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 17-8
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
