Books pray for Alabama to win SEC, take on Irish

Despite his grouchy personality, Alabama coach Nick Saban represents some of what's right about college football while so much is going wrong.

Conference realignment has unleashed chaos, turning the Big East into a garbage bin and ruining regional rivalries that spanned decades, all because of the Bowl Championship Scam and the shameless money hunt it created.

All sorts of bad teams that finished 6-6 are going to bowls, Ohio State and Penn State are banned, and a disgraced Bobby Petrino is the hottest coach on the free-agent market.

The NCAA is investigating Auburn, again, and this time it might uncover the obvious. The list goes on and on, but enough of the negativity.

Like it or not, Notre Dame is back, and I like it. If Saban can lead the Crimson Tide to a victory in the Southeastern Conference title game Saturday, Las Vegas sports books can prepare to host something comparable to a Super Bowl in early January.

"We surely would like to see Alabama-Notre Dame. I don't think it can miss on being the biggest college game we've ever booked," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of public relations for William Hill sports books.

The Fighting Irish did their part, staying perfect by beating Southern California last week. The one-loss Crimson Tide are 7½-point favorites over Georgia, and a win by Saban would set up a classic national championship matchup.

The Super Bowl annually attracts a wagering handle in the $90 million neighborhood in Nevada. With more than a month to bet on either Alabama or Notre Dame, plus the propositions, the BCS title game could draw 20 percent of what was wagered on the New England Patriots-New York Giants matchup in February.

"I believe we'll get $15 million to $18 million with no problem," Vaccaro said. "It's like an event-type of thing. The Alabama-Notre Dame game is a much easier sell."

Oregon could have been a big draw, too. Kansas State, with Heisman Trophy candidate Collin Klein at quarterback and shrewd coach Bill Snyder, has been a great story this season.

"As great as Snyder is, he would be boring to talk to and he would not build the game up," Vaccaro said.

The Irish and Tide figure to draw far more TV viewers and visitors to Las Vegas. It's a matchup that needs no carnival barker to stir excitement.

Georgia would not bring the same marketing and wagering appeal. So Vaccaro already knows what result the bookmakers will be rooting for Saturday - the Tide to win (setting up a monster handle for the Notre Dame game) but not cover the 7½ (because more money is showing on Alabama).

The Bulldogs are capable of pulling the upset and spoiling the party. They have the quarterback, junior Aaron Murray, to do it. But do they have the coach? Georgia's Mark Richt has been bad in the biggest games.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards, who has been red hot this season and is especially strong with opinions on the SEC, said he wants to take the points with the Bulldogs. But Richt gives him reason for pause.

"The coaching matchup scares the (expletive) out of me," Edwards said.

Saban is so good, I can't dispute that he's worth his $5.5 million salary this year. He runs a disciplined program, and as far as we know he didn't need boosters to pay six figures to recruit his quarterback, AJ McCarron. Saban is better, smarter and tougher than most coaches in the NFL. He has built a mini-dynasty team, and teams like that elevate the interest in any sport.

But if Les Miles wasn't such a bad gambler, this might not be a discussion. Louisiana State had Alabama down and almost pinned on Nov. 3. Miles blew the game with the kind of dubious coaching moves Saban never makes.

The Tigers' below-average quarterback, Zach Mettenberger, passed for a career-high 298 yards against Saban's defense.

"If Mettenberger can pass against that defense, Murray should be able to pass on that defense," SportsXRadio.com handicapper Ken Thomson said. "The Alabama defense is good, but it's not great. I think Georgia is going to win the game."

He has been called Nick "Satan" and compared to Darth Vader. But plenty of people hate the Irish, too. Every intriguing story needs a villain, and Alabama-Notre Dame would have it all.

■ CLOSING NUMBERS - The books need Alabama to win but not cover, and that's what I suspect will happen, so I'll take 7½ with the underdog Bulldogs. I stumbled to 2-5-1 last week, dropping my record in this spot to 37-16-2 the past 10 weeks. Here are four more plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

TEXAS CHRISTIAN (+6½) over Oklahoma; BAYLOR (+4½) over Oklahoma State; Wisconsin (+3) over Nebraska; South Alabama (+6) over HAWAII.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.